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How well have past GOTY winners sold?
We’re less than two months away from 2026’s The Game Awards, and what a year it’s been for fantastic games, including Resident Evil Requiem, Forza Horizon 6, Slay the Spire II, the Blood of Dawnwalker, and Control Resonant – just to name a few. So as we approach the end of the year, we thought we’d look back on our estimates for the GOTY winners of the past four years. In terms of revenue, Elden Ring (2022 winner), Baldur’s Gate 3 (2023), Astro Bot (2024), and Expedition 33 (2025) have generated a combined $3.8B via 73M copies sold: Let’s have a look, then. Elden Ring has generated $2B in revenue Elden Ring is a phenomenon in every sense. It’s sold a whopping 36.4M copies across Steam (50%), PS5 (35%), and Xbox (15% across console and PC). Want more free estimates and insights in your inbox twice a week? Subscribe below! Subscribe Elden Ring also just passed an astronomical milestone: $2B in revenue. While PlayStation and Xbox account for half of Elden Ring’s copies sold across these three platforms, they account for 57.5% of revenue. This – as ever – is due to regional pricing and the higher relative share of PC gamers in lower-priced markets. For example, around 17.4% of Elden Ring’s Steam copies sold were in China, where the game costs about 26% less than the price in the States. There’s an … interesting narrative going around these days that console gamers are only interested in ball-and-gun games and have the patience for little else. Well, Elden Ring’s impressive sales prove that is simply not true, and across all platforms. What’s more, over 9.8M people have played Elden Ring for over 100 hours, with nearly 3.5M people getting all of the achievements and trophies. For reference, 10.9% of Elden Ring’s PlayStation players have the platinum trophy, while 10.5% of players on Steam and 3.9% of Xbox players unlocked all the achievements. Git gud, Xbox players! Of the 1.5M people who played Elden Ring on PlayStation last month, 4% also played Dark Souls 3 last month, 4% played Bloodborne, and 3% played Sekiro. There’s those Soulsborne diehards for you. By many accounts, including my own, Elden Ring is one of the best games of all time. It’s an evergreen seller that will continue to be a cash cow for Bandai and FromSoftware for years to come. Want more free estimates and insights in your inbox twice a week? Subscribe below! Subscribe Elden Ring has sold another 2M copies across Steam, PlayStation, and Xbox this year, generating almost $110M. This means it’s outperforming many of this year’s high-profile releases. Even Elden Ring’s standalone run-based PvE spinoff, 2025’s Nightreign, has sold 7.8M copies and generated $282M in revenue. Baldur’s Gate 3 is another billion-dollar-plus banger Another cross-platform phenomenon is Baldur’s Gate 3, which has sold 23.2M copies and generated over $1.2B in revenue. About 18.7M of these copies (80.6%) are via Steam, 2.9M via PS5 (12.7%), and 1.6M (6.8%) via Xbox. Around 1.3M folks on Steam bought BG3 before it hit 1.0. The PlayStation version launched about a month after the PC 1.0 release, while the Xbox version came four months later due to technical issues around developing local co-op on the Series S. Want more free estimates and insights in your inbox twice a week? Subscribe below! Subscribe Across platforms, Baldur’s Gate 3’s monthly active users have never dropped below 2M, including 2.2M MAUs last month (68.5% on Steam, 21.9% on PS5, and 9.6% on Xbox). And it still regularly brings in 280K to 400K players every day: About 1% of BG3’s Steam player base has played for over 500 hours! That’s a little under 200K people. Astro Bot is also an evergreen seller, albeit a more niche, family one Astro Bot, 2024’s winner, has now sold 4.7M copies and generated $291M in revenue. The budget, including marketing, is almost certainly under $100M, given the small Japan-based core team and three-year dev timeline. You can really see why the tides are changing toward less expensive hubs. Astro Bot is the only first-party winner on this list, but follows other first-party winners of The Last of Us Part II (2020’s winner), God of War (2018), and Breath of the Wild (2017). Around 46.6% of Astro Bot’s copies sold have been physical, which is far higher than the typical game. This makes sense for a couple of reasons: There’s a large family audience for this one, and physical boxes are an item to wrap when giving Astro as a gift. Astro has collector value for the PlayStation core (this is nostalgia-fueled platformer celebrating PlayStation’s history) Want more free estimates and insights in your inbox twice a week? Subscribe below! Subscribe Astro is another one of those games that continues selling over time, regularly selling more than 100K a month. It’s sold around 1M more copies this year ($60M in revenue) and is a popular title with families. We can see this using the Alinea platform’s MAU crossover tool: Astro Bot’s top #2, #3, and #4 games by crossover in any given month this year are Minecraft, Fortnite, and Roblox – without fail. The #1 title every month, though, is Astro’s Playroom, a pack-in with all PS5 consoles. For every month this year, between 20% and 30% of Astro Bot players also played Astro’s Playroom that month. So the free pack-in is a noice funnel for converting players to a full paid product. Expedition 33 sells 8.7M despite Game Pass cannibalisation Finally, we have last year’s winner – Expedition 33. The turn-based-RPG banger has generated $366M via 8.7M copies sold, with 58.8% on Steam, 35.7% on PS5, and 5.5% on Xbox. Xbox’s share of copies sold is this low due to Expedition 33 launching on Game Pass, where 4.3M people across console and PC accessed the game. A little under 700K Xbox players used their subscription to play Expedition 33 this year. That said, the game’s 1.5-year Game Pass deal ended last week on October 16, and we’re already beginning to see a positive trend on Expedition 33’s copies sold via Xbox (but the jury’s still out!). There’s understandably a lot of French pride behind this one, as France is the game’s #3 market on both Steam and PlayStation. Vive la France! One thing that stood out to me is that the GOTY winners aren’t $300M Hollywood productions made in the US. They’re mostly mid-budget studios outside the traditional AAA cost centres. Lots to think about there. Also, good games sell well; who’d have thunk it!? And there’s a whole load of them this year, with GTA 6 still to come, too. GTA just made the cutoff point for the VGAs this year. What a coincidence! Loading... Cool links and other stuff Our physical games newsletter from Tuesday was picked up by GameSpot, Eurogamer, TweakTown, and a bunch of others. We’re offering a free trial of our platform for games companies. Send us a message here, or reply right here on Substack/email, and we’ll set you up. Next week, we’ve got some exciting news regarding the future of our newsletter, so stay tuned! The last word Reply to this email – or reach out here – if you have any feedback for the newsletter – or want to request a game for us to cover. Want to see why these companies (and many others) are subscribed to Alinea? Get a free platform trial! [Alinea Analytics boasts the most accurate PC and console estimates in the business. Game makers use our platform to understand their audience, keep an eye on the competition, monitor sales trends, and spot new opportunities. We equip game studios and financial institutions with accurate data and the confidence to make smarter, data-driven decisions. Want to talk about all things games market data? We’d love to chat!]
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Phantom Blade Zero made $223M on Steam and PS5 in five days
Phantom Blade Zero was always going to be a hit. We’ve been banging on about it for months now. Well, the results are in, and Phantom Blade Zero has indeed been a hit. Yesterday, S-Game reported that Phantom Blade Zero has sold 4M copies. As of this morning, our estimates show that Phantom Blade Zero has generated $223M via 4.3M copies sold across Steam (3.1M) and PlayStation (1.2M). This instantly makes Phantom Blade Zero this year’s #10 new 2026 game by premium revenue across Steam, Xbox, and PlayStation – and without an Xbox release to boot. Want more free estimates and insights in your inbox twice a week? Subscribe below! Subscribe Combined, China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong account for 55% of Phantom Blade Zero’s copies sold – 56% of copies on Steam and 50% on PlayStation. But revenue is slightly different. Phantom Blade Zero actually made more revenue outside of China However, due to regional pricing, China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong account for a lower share of revenue, 45%. The three countries account for 40% of Phantom Blade Zero’s revenue on PlayStation, and 47% on Steam. This is due to regional pricing, which you can easily check in our platform: Using the $59.99 USD base price as a starting point, we can see that Phantom Blade Zero costs the equivalent of $40.31 in China (-32.8% of the US price) and $41.80 in Hong Kong (-30.3%). So while Chinese culture is at the heart of Phantom Blade Zero (in terms of theme and player base), it’s actually making more money in non-China markets. In fact, markets outside of China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan account for $123M in Phantom Blade Zero revenues via 2M copies. Even when we remove revenues from these markets from the analysis, Phantom Blade Zero remains a top 20 new 2026 title by revenue across Steam, Xbox, and PlayStation. Want more free estimates and insights in your inbox twice a week? Subscribe below! Subscribe In other words, Phantom Blade Zero is a global hit. It’s not all China – or even majority China, when it comes to revenues. The China spring board helped, but a successful State of Play and – more importantly – positive reviews helped this one land in other markets. Quality sells. China was hyped from the start, but Western players needed more convincing As we wrote back in August, China was always going to show up early for Phantom Blade Zero. Our daily Steam revenue data shows just that, and we can see when S-Game’s banging RPG won over players outside of China: On the day Phantom Blade Zero’s Steam pre-order button went live in mid-August, China accounted for nearly 70% of Phantom Blade Zero’s Steam revenue. The shares hovered around 68% throughout August. This is the hometown-hero effect we’ve covered in the past, with the home market committing first – almost sight unseen – on national pride and a lush-looking trailer alone. Then things get even more interesting. Following the State of Play on August 18, US daily revenue more than doubled (from $72K to $146K), China’s daily take nearly quadrupled ($237K to $892K), and the rest of the world’s revenues also more than doubled. As China spiked so much harder than the others, its share of revenue hardly moved, holding at around 68%. So the by-all-counts-awesome State of Play got non-China markets and the West interested (you can see daily spend jump), but it didn’t move the needle for overall revenue shares. Positive reviews were the Western tipping point. US daily revenue went from $106K on October 25 to $230K when the embargo lifted on the 26th, to $463K on the 27th, to $899K on the 28th. So nearly 8.5x more revenue in four days, boosted by the positive reviews and subsequent word of mouth. When Phantom Blade Zero launched on the 29th, things hit critical mass. On launch day, the US and the rest of the world combined out-earned China for the first time in Phantom Blade Zero’s whole pre-order history. You can see this unfolding pretty nicely in the revenue shifting shares, too. China’s lifetime revenue share sat at 68% in August and was still 65% as late as October 25th, but it dropped to 45% by November 2. Over that same period, the US nearly doubled its share from 10% to 18%, and the rest of the world climbed from 25% to 38%. Want more free estimates and insights in your inbox twice a week? Subscribe below! Subscribe That’s not to say that China sold less – far from it. The West and non-China markets just showed up later, won over by the reviews and word of mouth. However you look at it, Phantom Blade Zero has become one of this year’s highest-grossing premium games. Daily volume seems to be decelerating a bit (which is natural), so subscribe below for more updates on performance. Speaking of performance and deceleration… Gran Turismo 7 is one of PlayStation’s biggest earners While games like Ghost of Yotei, Helldivers 2, Astro Bot, Wolverine (2.7M now, by the way), and even Marathon and Saros tend to get all the headlines (we hold our hand up there, too!), there’s one PlayStation game from the past five years that’s earned more than all of these games: and it’s one that’s rarely talked about in enthusiast circles. Gran Turismo 7, which launched in March 2022, has sold 12.7M copies. This amounts to $840M in revenue, second only to Spider-Man 2’s $1.3B – if we’re talking PlayStation first-party for this generation. Gran Turismo 7 still brings in around 3M players every month (and between 400K and 700K active players per day). It’s also an evergreen seller every year. For example, Gran Turismo 7 generated: $189.7M in 2023 via 2.9M copies $161.3M in 2024 via 2.7M copies $119.1M in 2025 via 1.7M copies This year, Gran Turismo 7 has already sold 1.3M copies, generating $74.7M And there’s more laps to come Every December is comfortably GT7’s biggest month of the year (except launch), and the gap is widening there. December generated 2.1x a normal month in 2023, and by 2025 that had grown to 2.8x. Want more free estimates and insights in your inbox twice a week? Subscribe below! Subscribe As the typical months cool off with age, Christmas always holds strong, so the holiday period is becoming a bigger slice of Gran Turismo 7 yearly revenue. For Gran Turismo 7, the week around Christmas does 3x to 5x a typical week – three years running: Christmas week 2023: $14.7M (4.6x the year’s median week) Christmas week 2024: $9.3M (3.3x) Christmas week 2025: $8.5M (4.6x) These Christmas peaks happened at the full $59.99 (Gran Turismo 7 wasn’t discounted at all in December 2023 or December 2025). And although there was a discount late in December 2024, GT7’s peak week that year still happened at full price. You can really see why PlayStation hasn’t added this one to PlayStation Plus, eh? Say it after me: Subscriptions cannibalise premium revenue! On that note… Let’s take a quick look at how Gran Turismo 7 is doing versus its nearest competitor, Xbox console exclusive and long-running sim racer Forza Motorsport (released in 2023 as a reboot for the franchise, about 19 months after GT7). Forza Motorsport has sold around 1.3M copies across Xbox (75.4% for Xbox console and PC) and Steam (24.6%), grossing $89.9M across those platforms. Launch aligned, and on just PlayStation, Gran Turismo 7 had sold 10.2M copies, generating $676.1M, by that point. In other words, Gran Turismo 7 has sold the same number of copies this year as Forza Motorsport has sold since launch. When all is said and done, Gran Turismo 7’s 2026 revenues will have lapped Motorsport’s lifetime, too. It’s worth noting that Forza Motorsport was not released on last-gen consoles, and under a quarter of Gran Turismo 7’s revenue has come from PS4 consoles. Critically, Forza Motorsport is also on Game Pass, where nearly 7M players have accessed it. Meanwhile, the Forza Horizon series has been performing incredibly in terms of revenue. This year’s Forza Horizon 6 has generated $583.7M across Xbox and Steam despite Game Pass cannibalisation, and last year’s Forza Horizon 5 PlayStation port has generated $383.5M on PS5 alone. So two questions, then: How well is Forza Horizon 6 going to do when it launches on PS5 in January? Hit subscribe to get that in your inbox in January (which is in two months somehow!?) Subscribe 2. Open-world arcade Gran Turismo when? Also, if you like arcade racers, go and play Star Wars Galactic Racer. It rules. Like GOTY material, seriously. The last word Reply to this email – or reach out here – if you have any feedback for the newsletter – or want to request a game for us to cover. [Alinea Analytics boasts the most accurate PC and console estimates in the business. Game makers use our platform to understand their audience, keep an eye on the competition, monitor sales trends, and spot new opportunities. We equip game studios and financial institutions with accurate data and the confidence to make smarter, data-driven decisions. Want to talk about all things games market data? We’d love to chat!]
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Global Health & WASH
The US National Institutes of Health reopened its center and program-project machinery in force. NIGMS is funding Collaborative Program Grants for interdisciplinary teams, NIAID opened both its Immune Tolerance Network and a next-generation R&D call, the NCI runs its Carcinogen Hazard Assessment Monographs program, the National Library of Medicine is funding institutional training in biomedical AI and data science, and NIH reopened its Centers for AIDS Research. The tell: these pay for standing centers and multi-year consortia at institutions with an existing funded research base, not one-off projects, so the fit is an established US research institution, not a single investigator. Disease-specific foundations are again funding the researcher, not just the research. The Parkinson’s Foundation opened its Paul Oreffice Innovations in Care Award and the National Ataxia Foundation its Research Seed Money Grant. The tell, the same one we flagged last cycle, is a named early-career or seed award that builds a pipeline of scientists committed to one condition, so what wins is a researcher willing to specialize. The post-USAID global-health money is routing through a State Department program statement and multilateral innovation funds. The US Department of State’s Bureau of Global Health Security and Diplomacy opened its Advancing Global Health Annual Program Statement, Grand Challenges Canada opened Nexa Lighthouse for climate and health innovation in Asia and the Pacific at USD $250,000 to $2,000,000, and CEPI opened a rolling call on vaccine-manufacturing analytics. The tell: the largest health money this cycle sits in a standing program statement and in staged innovation vehicles, not in a single bilateral grant. Total Estimated Funding Pool: ~$35.4M across discrete grants. (Separately, large national-formula envelopes not counted in this total: U.S. Department of State, Bureau of Global Health Security and Diplomacy (GHSD).) This post is for paid subscribers. This helps support the time and effort it takes to curate and organize these opportunities. Subscribe To keep this accessible to everyone who needs it, we’re happy to offer pay what you can rates. You can find more details here. New opportunities: Paul Oreffice Innovations in Care Award, Parkinson’s Foundation. *New!* *Closing soon!* The Parkinson’s Foundation created the Paul Oreffice Innovations in Care Award to fund clinicians rethinking how people with Parkinson’s disease receive care. The Foundation is using pilot funding to move promising ideas into testable projects, backing work across four lanes: strengthening community clinician capability, redesigning care models, building patient-centered technologies, and defining the minimum clinical datasets that make better standards possible. It wants hypothesis-driven, clinically grounded projects that can generate evidence strong enough to attract further funding. By opening the door to clinicians at every career stage and strongly preferring projects that involve people with Parkinson’s in their design, the Foundation signals that it values practical, patient-shaped innovation over prestige. The strongest fits are US-licensed clinicians with a focus on Parkinson’s and an institutional home for applied care research. Geographies: united states. Who can apply: Clinicians of all career stages, from fellows to established faculty, who are licensed to care for patients in the United States and have a significant focus on Parkinson’s disease. Physicians must have completed a neurology residency (or justify how their training pathway benefits people with PD); allied health professionals must hold an advanced degree, typically a PhD. Fellows, those in mentored positions, and those within two years of starting an independent position require a mentor and a mentor support letter. The sponsoring institution’s grants office is the authorized recipient and funds are disbursed to the institution. Funding amount: Maximum of $200,000 over two years; up to three awards. Targeted Sectors / SDGs: Health; Innovation; Science & Technology. Deadline: November 1, 2026. Learn more and apply here. Design and Deliver the Next EIT Health Bootcamps, EIT Health. *New!* *Closing soon!* EIT Health is opening its call for consortia to design and deliver the next generation of its health start-up bootcamps, funding the curriculum, masterclasses, mentoring, and investor engagement that turn early health ventures into fundable companies. The organization is using these learning paths to strengthen Europe’s health innovation pipeline across digital health evidence, deep tech and AI commercialization, cross-border investment, and patient access. What EIT Health wants to back is not a single course but durable delivery capacity built by partners who span industry, education, and research. Requiring multi-country consortia and a revenue-sharing stake in the programs signals that EIT Health expects these bootcamps to outlast the grant. The strongest fits are established training providers, universities, and industry partners with proven reach into health entrepreneurs. Geographies: Europe. Who can apply: Consortia only (individuals cannot apply), comprising a minimum of two and a maximum of five independent legal entities. Partners must cover at least two sides of the Knowledge Triangle (industry, education, research), including at least one industry organisation, and at least two entities must be legally established in different Horizon Europe countries. Funding amount: Foundational Learning Path: up to EUR €112,000; Thematic Learning Paths: up to EUR €124,500 per path (up to four thematic projects); up to EUR €610,000 total EIT Health funding available under the call. Targeted Sectors / SDGs: Health; Innovation; Science & Technology; Economic Development & Livelihoods. Deadline: November 2, 2026. Learn more and apply here. Technology Transfer Offices & Entrepreneurship Support Call (Beyond the Lab: From Research to Venture), EIT Health. *New!* *Closing soon!* EIT Health is opening its Technology Transfer Offices and Entrepreneurship Support Call to fund consortia that will deliver the Beyond the Lab: From Research to Venture program for healthcare researchers. EIT Health is using the grant to build local capacity for turning laboratory science into incorporated start-ups, paying experienced technology transfer offices and entrepreneurship support providers to run masterclasses, structured mentoring, and a closing Pitch Day across two cohorts. It wants to back organizations that can walk researchers from discovery to company formation, not just teach theory. Requiring two transfer offices plus one venture-building provider signals that EIT Health values proven commercialization experience alongside academic reach. The strongest fits are European research-commercialization teams with a track record of moving health innovations toward investable ventures. Geographies: Europe. Who can apply: A consortium of two Technology Transfer Offices (representing higher education institutions or research organisations) and one Entrepreneurship Support Provider with demonstrated experience in venture building and start-up support. Applicants may apply for more than one learning path where they can demonstrate the required expertise and capacity for each. Funding amount: Up to EUR €77,000 in 2027 and up to EUR €77,000 in 2028 (up to EUR €154,000 total per consortium over two years). Targeted Sectors / SDGs: Health; Innovation; Science & Technology; Economic Development & Livelihoods. Deadline: November 2, 2026. Learn more and apply here. EIT Health RIS Country Representatives Call (2027-2028), EIT Health. *New!* *Closing soon!* EIT Health is seeking organizations to serve as Country Representatives across eleven Regional Innovation Scheme countries in central and eastern Europe for the 2027 to 2028 period. The money funds a national anchor in each country, an organization that maps the local health innovation ecosystem, connects startups and researchers to EIT Health programs, and builds the stakeholder relationships that let health ventures grow. EIT Health is backing local capacity rather than individual projects, which is why it accepts both single organizations and national consortia that span education, research, and industry. The requirement for co-financing signals that it wants representatives already embedded in their national systems. The strongest fits are established ecosystem builders with deep ties to health innovation stakeholders in one eligible country. Geographies: Croatia; Czech Republic; Estonia; Greece; Hungary; Latvia; Malta; Romania; Serbia; Slovenia; Turkey. Who can apply: Registered legal entities established in one of the eligible EIT RIS countries. Single organisations or national consortia may apply. Consortia must include at least two sides of the Knowledge Triangle (education, research and industry), and all consortium partners must be established in the same eligible country. Suitable applicants have demonstrated experience in healthcare innovation ecosystem development, innovation support and entrepreneurship, start-up acceleration, technology transfer, research and higher education, business support, and stakeholder engagement, with strong links to national innovation stakeholders. Funding amount: Up to EUR €182,000 per Country Representative (maximum funding per project); total call budget up to EUR €1,274,500; EIT Health funds up to 60% of total eligible project costs. Targeted Sectors / SDGs: Health; Innovation; Science & Technology; Economic Development & Livelihoods. Deadline: November 2, 2026. Learn more and apply here. Architects of Trust: Community-Driven Demand Creation for New TB Vaccines, Treatment Action Group (TAG). *New!* *Closing soon!* Treatment Action Group, with funding from Wellcome, is opening its Architects of Trust call to help communities prepare for the new tuberculosis vaccines now moving through late-stage trials. The money backs civil society and community-based organizations to raise awareness, surface local questions and concerns, and press policymakers toward equitable national rollout. By pairing each grantee with an advocacy mentor and running a strategy workshop alongside the Global TB Vaccine Forum, Treatment Action Group is building a durable advocacy bench rather than funding one-off outreach. The two-stage design, starting with a short expression of interest, signals that fit and community rootedness matter more than polished proposals. The strongest fits are locally trusted groups with real TB, immunization, or health advocacy experience and a committed project lead. Geographies: Brazil; Ethiopia; India; Indonesia; Kenya; Malawi; Mozambique; Nigeria; Peru; Philippines; South Africa; Tanzania; Vietnam; Zambia. Who can apply: National, subnational, or regional civil society organizations (CSOs) or community-based organizations based in one of the 14 eligible countries or in Eastern Europe/Central Asia regional networks, with experience in TB, immunization, or other health advocacy and in community engagement or policy advocacy; well integrated into stakeholder networks with membership or affiliation to other CSO or community networks; naming a dedicated project lead (’architect of trust’) who can attend the April 2027 Zaragoza forum in person; and holding (or committing to adopt) organizational policies on safeguarding (bullying, harassment, abuse, and harm), equity, diversity and inclusion, and legal compliance, research practice and governance. Funding amount: Grants of up to US$45,000 will be awarded to 8 CSO partners across 14 high-TB-burden countries plus regional networks in Eastern Europe and Central Asia; each grant funds 12 months of work. Targeted Sectors / SDGs: Health; Governance; Policy & Advocacy. Deadline: November 4, 2026. Learn more and apply here.
Reflex raises $14M to help enterprises replace generic third-party software with custom business apps
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Westbrook Health Services on lockdown after threats made
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T-shirts and silver balls: Politics get mixed in with the profane at a Trump store
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This gen’s top 10 PlayStation Studios games
As we near the six-year anniversary of the PS5, we thought we’d dive into our estimates for the top-grossing PlayStation Studios games since the start of the gen. Together, the 10 games we’re covering today have generated over $6.5 billion across PlayStation (84.7%), Steam (14.1%), and Xbox (1.2% via just Helldivers 2). Let’s have a look at the top 10. Spidey and Kratos sequels take the top two spots God of War Ragnarok takes the top spot with $1.4B in revenue via 21.6M copies – 20.1M on PlayStation (75.2% via PS5) and the rest on Steam. Around 27.5% of the copies sold on PlayStation were physical. It’s another PlayStation evergreen seller, too. This year, Ragnarok has already sold 1.1M copies, generating $60M (68% on PlayStation), outperforming new 2026 titles like Gears of War E-Day and Saros. Overall, our estimates show that Ragnarok has been accessed by 6.7M PlayStation Plus players (it was added to the Extra tier about two years ago). So it’s performed that well this year despite subscription cannibalisation. That’s the pull of God of War IP. And that Bautista series on Amazon is going to be massive - bigger than Fallout, I reckon. Next up is Spider-Man 2 with $1.3B across PS5 (over $1.2B) and Steam (nearly $70M). Spider-Man 2 has sold over 19.1M copies overall, so it should pass 20M early next year. Spider-Man 2 is an evergreen title that always spikes around the holidays (mostly concentrated around Christmas week): In December 2023, it sold 2.1M copies, up 20% from November 2023 (the month after release) In December 2024, Spider-Man 2 sold 460K copies (natural decay), up 60% from November 2024. Despite the Steam version launching in January 2025, it still sold more copies – and made more revenue – the month before. In December 2025, it sold 328K copies, up 30% from November 2025. This year’s December and Christmas will be somewhat limited by Spidey’s February 2026 addition to PS+ Extra, where 6.3M people accessed it for the first time. While subscription inclusions always cannibalise premium revenues to some extent, Spider-Man 2 did manage to sell 578K copies in August 2026 – the most its sold since Q1 2024, following hype from the Spider-Man Brand New Day movie. Want more free estimates and insights in your inbox twice a week? Subscribe below! Subscribe God of War Ragnarok and Spider-Man 2 continue to be huge evergreen tentpoles for Sony. Together, both titles have sold 3.4M this year (2.3M for Spidey and 1.1M for Ragnarok), generating a combined $172.9M ($115.8M for Spidey and $57.1M for Ragnarok). Again, some premium games would take a leaf out of Kratos’ book (not Spidey’s!) and would kill for these numbers in year 1. And we can see why Sony wants to take a leaf from Steam’s book, killing physical to get higher margins from catalogue sales, ensuring they get their cut, and having more control over supply and demand (and pricing for their first-party titles). Hot rods, hellpods, and horizons Gran Turismo 7 takes #3 this generation with $841.9M in revenue via 12.7M copies sold. For more info on GT7, you can check out our write-up from earlier this week. Around 1.1M people have already played GT7 this month, less than six days in. Next up – at #4 – is the first second-party game on this list. Helldivers 2 has generated $786.3M via 23M copies sold across Steam (66.1% of the copies), PS5 (25.7%), and the 1.5-year-later Xbox port (8.3%). And there are plenty of players very dedicated to the Super Earth cause, as over 4M folks have played Helldivers 2 for over 100 hours, while 462K played for over 500 hours. That dedication to democracy is pretty topical… Anyway, Helldivers 2 still attracts about 700K players per day (more if there’s a significant update), and its August addition to PlayStation Plus Extra has led to 1.6M new players overall. This year, Helldivers 2 has sold over 2.5M copies, generating $81.1M in revenue. It’s another evergreen hit for Sony, and draws in engagement numbers similar to Arc Raiders. The Helldivers 2 model, in my opinion, should be the way PlayStation approaches its live-service and second-party releases. Want more free estimates and insights in your inbox twice a week? Subscribe below! Subscribe Horizon Forbidden West rounds off the first half of the top 10, generating $485.8M. That said, PlayStation completely stifled Horizon Forbidden West’s revenue by adding it to PlayStation Plus way too early (one year after launch). You can see the revenue drop-off clearly in our platform: As you can see: Forbidden West was still a healthy catalogue earner right before it was added to PS+ Extra, making about $1.23M a week on PlayStation across late 2022 and into January 2023. After it was added to Extra_, Forbidden West_’s weekly revenue halved to around $610K, basically overnight. Excluding launch month, Horizon Forbidden West generated about $67.2M on PlayStation in the period before the PS Plus addition. In the same period after it joined the service, that fell to $28.1M, a 58% drop. So, PlayStation didn’t trade a little bit of premium revenue for subscriber value here. It gave up well over half of it, and it cut momentum instantly for one of its premier franchises. Could you imagine the kind of cannibalisation if it launched day in date on Extra? Want more free estimates and insights in your inbox twice a week? Subscribe below! Subscribe And the cannibalisation wasn’t a temporary blip that bounced back once the game left the service in September 2024. By then, 19 months on PS Plus had already hoovered up most of the install base that would have bought it, so there was barely a premium audience left to monetise. PlayStation even added it back to PS Plus on October 21 this year, and sure enough, weekly revenue dropped again (by around a third); though, the numbers are small now that Forbidden West is nearly four years old. Worth the trade-off. The usual suspects, platformers, and an Asia-driven second-party hit As for the rest of the list: Ghost of Yotei has now generated $410.1M via 5.5M copies on PS5. Yotei popped off a bit a few weeks ago due to a content update, which we covered here. The Last of Part Us I, a remake that we covered here, has generated $341.3M in revenue (67.2% via PlayStation) via 6.4M copies. It was also added to PS+ Extra about two years after launch, where 7.8M people accessed it for the first time. Ratchet and Clank: Rift Apart has made $334.9M (93.6% via PlayStation 5). It’s now passed 5M copies sold overall. It’s sold 250K copies this year, generating $13.5M in revenue. Time for another Ratchet? Stellar Blade has generated $316.9M via PS5 (59.7%) and Steam (40.3%). However, the share of Stellar Blade’s 5.4M copies sold is far closer (50.4% on PlayStation, 49.6% on Steam) – despite the Steam version releasing a year later. China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong account for 48% of Steam copies and 35% of PlayStation copies (about 41% overall). These markets are regionally priced lower than others, hence the difference. Astro Bot rounds out the top 10 with $292.6M in revenue via over 4.7M copies sold. We covered Astro’s recent performance here, covering how Astro Bot is another evergreen seller and has been a hit with families. Want more free estimates and insights in your inbox twice a week? Subscribe below! Subscribe Even these bottom five games have generated a combined $281.7M this year in catalogue sales. PlayStation wants those numbers to be bigger in the coming years, which is one of the reasons it’s killing the disc (alongside the better margins it and publishers get through digital). No more used discs means more D2C revenue for PlayStation. On that note, we recently chatted to the New York Times again about PlayStation’s digital future, so keep your eyes peeled for that! The last word Reply to this email – or reach out here – if you have any feedback for the newsletter – or want to request a game for us to cover. Want to see why these companies (and many others) are subscribed to Alinea? Get a free platform trial! [Alinea Analytics boasts the most accurate PC and console estimates in the business. Game makers use our platform to understand their audience, keep an eye on the competition, monitor sales trends, and spot new opportunities. We equip game studios and financial institutions with accurate data and the confidence to make smarter, data-driven decisions. Want to talk about all things games market data? We’d love to chat!]
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Imaging Science Thesis Defense: A Step Towards Developing Digital Twins of Forest Environments with Terrestrial Laser Scanning | Events
Imaging Science MS Thesis Defense A Step Towards Developing Digital Twins of Forest Environments with Terrestrial Laser Scanning Zoom Link here Aisha Co Imaging Science MS Candidate Rochester Institute of Technology Abstract: Digital twins have become an increasingly relevant topic as we pursue accurate representations of the real world for planning, research, and even design purposes. This study focuses on the steps for creating digital twins of forest environments using sparse points from terrestrial light detection and ranging (LiDAR). Specifically, we developed geometric models of structural digital twins (SDTs) from leaf-off terrestrial laser scanning of real-world forests. Three algorithms were used to develop an approach to handle individual tree reconstructions for sparse point clouds, and they were tested and validated with a two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic against an existing inventory of the RIT Nature Trail to evaluate the reconstruction’s fidelity. The key evaluation metrics included diameter at breast height (DBH) and height. The limited nature of available ground truth necessitated the use of an additional validation method using a PANGAEA open dataset, based on comparing DBH, height, and crown diameter against the dataset’s calculated measurements. Reconstructions were compared against per-tree reference values at two-point spacings for sixteen trees from the open BR07 dataset (PANGAEA); these specifications matched the collected RIT Nature Trail data and the scanner’s nominal spacing. On BR07, the proposed method had the lowest median DBH error among the methods that modeled every tree (1.28cm, 4.1%), and this error was nearly unchanged at the coarser spacing, while TreeQSM’s rose from 4.2% to 6.5% and AdTree overestimated DBH by 30% to 40%. Results show the proposed method understates the tree heights by 0.2m to 1.4m but contains the least error when estimating DBH. The proposed method was able to produce all 69 trees, while SimpleTree produced 49 and none at the 4.35 cm BR07 spacing. We concluded that the developed geometric model (digital) twins have significant potential to serve as both simulation and prediction tools. We recommend that future efforts focus on collecting per-tree ground truth measurements within the scanned plot and incorporating leaf-on scans. Leaf-on scans include representative foliage, which would add realism to the model and ecological function of the trees. Intended Audience: Beginners, undergraduates, graduates. Those with interest in the topic. To request an interpreter, please visit myaccess.rit.edu
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Netflix’s Leadership Shake Up…Explained
(Welcome to the “Most Important Story of the Week”, my bi-weekly strategy column analyzing the most important (but often not buzziest) news story of the last two weeks. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. Please subscribe.) Well, I had a simple article planned for this week. Called “Whoa, I Missed It!”, I’d take a gander at a few important-but-under-the-radar stories I didn’t cover while I wrote about all things “Skydance. (Formerly known as “the saga of Netflix trying to buy Warner Bros., but not Discovery, then Paramount-Skydance bought all of Warner Bros. Discovery”.) Alas, that article will have to wait. Netflix made news. Ironically, my “Whoa, I Missed It!” article would have mostly been about “content” strategy decisions, which is also what today’s article is about. But instead of the entire industry, this article will only cover Netflix’s decision to upend their film and TV content teams. Just that! So that’s the full topic of the day. I’m going to tackle the issue in the opposite direction of the way “stuff” flows: uphill. We’ll start at film, then move onto TV, and then onto the CEOs themselves, and the strategy questions that still remain. But we start with the numbers driving this. Let’s dive in. Subscribe Most Important Story of the Week - Netflix Upends Their Corporate Hierarchy I’ve got a lot of thoughts, but we’ll start with the most common response to yesterday’s article. Let’s Talk Stock Price More than one person, responding to what I published two days ago, pointed out that, well, actually, the thing driving Netflix’s actions is this: In short, stock price! Even if Netflix isn’t obsessed with their own share price—they probably are, but, for the record, my strategic advice to every CEO is to absolutely ignore stock prices, which will, ironically, probably help the stock price long-term—most everyone thinks they are. By the way, I prefer market capitalization to stock prices, because it’s a more apples-to-apples way to compare companies: But there’s an even better way to look at it, and it kinda casts some doubt on the entire push here: price-to-earnings. I have a long list of articles that I wish I had written, and chief among them is an article titled, “Am I Still a Netflix ‘Bear’?” meaning someone who thinks Netflix’s stock is overvalued. As of last summer, Netflix had solved their biggest problem—which for me (circa 2019) was the lack of free cash flow—but their stock was CRAZY overvalued. That’s this chart here: Why did Netflix’s stock price increase to a price-to-earnings ratio of 50 last summer? What financial metric changed so quickly? Nothing. Given that, historically, mature entertainment companies average 10 to 20, with 16 being the average, that increase made little sense. Netflix’s stock swoon these last eight or so months wasn’t irrational; the stock price rise last year was. So if you want a really hot Netflix take, here it is: Netflix’s stock price has been going down because the financial industry recovered its senses, not because of any strategic mistake. Yes, that would imply that cleaning house may have been a mistake. That’s why the charts yesterday are so important, because they show that Netflix did have a strategic problem (a lack of hits) and that’s what they moved to address. (One could also argue the industry drastically overrated Netflix’s growth prospects, but that’s a financial industry problem, not a Netflix strategy problem per se. Some growth estimates are just crazy. *cough* AI *cough*) Now, the last time Netflix’s stock price crashed—circa 2022—it gave them an opening. I’d argue Netflix insiders knew they needed to expand post-COVID-19 crisis, adding advertising, cracking down on password sharing, and dabbling in sports. But if they had done that when their stock price was high, it would give folks a reason to second guess their strategy. (Arguably, last year, when Netflix pursued the Warner Bros. merger, it gave the industry a chance to review their business.) Instead, after the 2022 fall, they had the opening to make strategic changes. We may see Netflix pivot again following this latest slide. For example, the “binge versus weekly” conversation is alive and well again. Same for expanding into theaters even more. And adding both linear channels and streaming bundles. And maybe more either social, user-generated, vertical, or creator content. But the first shift came with who is making the content calls. A Message from Our Sponsor Last winter Pulp Fiction was on Netflix. For those same 90 days, it was also free, with ads, on Pluto TV and the Roku Channel. That is not a glitch, and it is not rare. The title has run on 20 different US streaming services since 2019, across 80 separate windows, and for more than 600 of those days it sat on a paid subscription service and a free ad-supported one at the same time. Almost nobody can see this, because when a title leaves a service, the record that it was ever there tends to leave with it. Reelgood keeps that record, dated to the day rather than the month: 4MM+ movie, show and episode titles across 300+ services globally, with timestamped arrivals, departures and moves across SVOD, AVOD, TVOD and vMVPD. Licensing teams price against every prior window. Rights teams check what a licensee actually delivered, and when. Pick a title you think you know: data.reelgood.com/title-availability Film - Dan Lin Want to know why I don’t opine on individual film or TV executives, especially new hires? Dan Lin. As I always caution, it’s really, really, really tough to predict which executives will succeed in new roles and which won’t. The successful head of co-production/finance partner, Rideback, Lin was considered for the head of DC Studios job before taking the job as the head of Netflix. By all accounts at the time, this was a smart hire. (That’s my read of the news coverage anyways.) But now that Netflix has fired Dan Lin, we got a slew of news stories about how he was doing a terrible job. In sports media, Bryan Curtis, new Substack writer/podcaster from The Ringer, calls this the “now you tell us” story, when you only hear the bad news after a star athlete leaves a sports team. In this case, now they tell us that Dan Lin was bad with talent after he got kicked out the door. So was Dan Lin a flop? It’s actually tough to say. While film moves faster than TV, even two years isn’t really enough time to evaluate a person’s output. The new head hasn’t really taken control. As Emily Horgan noted, it takes much longer than two years to produce animated films, so yeah, it’s definitely too early to judge in that domain. As for live-action films, I just published an article by Brandon Katz called “Netflix’s Summer of Bummer”, but I’d point out Netflix had a bad summer two years ago too. Arguably, their best summer came from KPop Demon Hunters last year and Happy Gilmore 2, the latter of which I saw credited to Lin. Then, the stories came out that Dan Lin clashed with talent, both Ben Affleck and Greta Gerwig, classic “now they tell us” factoids to explain his firing. This may have been true, but also should have been expected given that he was given the mandate to bring budgets back in check, especially after Rebel Moon. So if he made folks upset, well, that’s what he was hired to do! But also, he was described as “well-liked” at his hiring! In that case, I’m a bit sympathetic to Lin, since he may have been undercut by senior leadership, as often happens. Basically, a CEO hires a subordinate to be their “bad cop” and keep budgets in check, but then when talent complains, the CEO ends up undercutting them. That’s how I think you end up with a Narnia movie as expensive as any of the other flops, along with a film executive the town no longer likes. As a result, I think that Netflix is now executing a classic “hire the opposite” move by hiring Peter Rice. This phrase comes from my experience following football and basketball coaching decisions, where teams generally hire the opposite of who they just had. If you have an offense-minded head coach, hire the defensive guy. Or in college football, if you have a strong recruiter, then you pivot to an “X’s and Os” type of guy. Or in pro basketball, if you have a very analytically minded coach, you hire the player-friendly guy. I see that here. After dropping Scott Stuber—arguably a talent-friendly executive with lax budget control—Netflix hired the business guy to keep costs in check. Now Netflix is pivoting back to Peter Rice and presumably a more talent-friendly regime. (Disney, by the way, has done this twice: hiring business guys to succeed talent-friendly Bob Iger. It didn’t work out last time.) When it comes to Peter Rice…we’ll see! Maybe he works out, but maybe he doesn’t. I’d actually say the biggest problem is that Netflix still hasn’t solved its “IP Problem”, in that they don’t own much IP, so they just have a lower hit rate. The new executive won’t solve that. (Though buying Lionsgate would help.) Share “Content” - Bela Bajaria I almost published yesterday’s article after this column, but ended up flipping the order, because it told the story so well. So if you want the data for why Netflix is looking at TV to fix their problems, it’s in that article, this graph in particular: I know I just wrote that it’s often hard to judge executives, but Bajaria ran TV for six years and film for three and a half more. That’s more than enough to judge hit rates, and Netflix needs more hits. That’s the story. Since 2023, Netflix hasn’t had as many hit shows as it used to, and many of its previous power house TV shows have ended their runs (Stranger Things most of all). Also, many shows from 2020 to 2022 probably pre-dated Bajaria’s tenure. (That said, one thing may have been outside of Bajaria’s control, which I explain below.) Let’s lump some content strategy thoughts about Netflix and TV into one place: We’re just getting started with this issue, but the rest is for paid subscribers of the Entertainment Strategy Guy, so if you’d like to find out… Why I partially blame Squid Game for Netflix’s latest troubles… What is “the football trap”... Why it might not be the TV shows or films’ fault at all… What change I don’t think Netflix will make... How Bela Bajaria evolved Netflix’s TV strategy in smart ways… Whose departure likely submarined Bajaria’s final few years… One sneaky explanation for Netflix’s content struggles... And a whole lot more... ...please subscribe! We can only keep doing this great work with your support.
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She joined Crain Communications in 1989 and served in multiple roles, including publisher of Detroit Monthly, the precursor to Crain’s Detroit Business, and served as the marketing director for Crain’s Detroit.
Starz Entertainment 3Q 2026: Revenue $322.4M, Net income ($34.8M), EPS ($2.02)
Starz Entertainment reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $322.4 million, up 0.5% from the prior-year quarter, while net loss narrowed to $34.8 million from $52.6 million. Diluted loss per share was $2.02, compared with $3.15 a year earlier.Financial Highlights¹ Reported as “Total revenue”. ² Repo…
Once a condo building, this Gold Coast tower just sold for $67M
The sale comes amid a surge in Chicago-area apartment deals, with transaction volume up 91% in the first half of the year.
Ray Romano inducted into Long Island Music and Entertainment Hall of Fame
The Long Island Music and Entertainment Hall of Fame inducted Ray Romano as its first nonmusical honoree in the museum's 22-year history Thursday.
Cary business owners push back on NCDOT project proposal: 'Would be devastating'
Dozens of small business owners in Cary are concerned about an $84M NCDOT project that could displace longtime stores near Maynard Road and Chatham Street.
The political map is anyone's guess after a Democratic wave in the midterm elections
Voters have dramatically shifted the political landscape by electing Democrats in traditionally Republican states.
Gaston County health official works to expand mental health resources for teens
Trey Sarter, mental health coordinator for Gaston County Public Health, is working to reach the county’s younger population, a group he said has become a top priority for local public health leaders.
‘ResearchED’: Building the Case for Learning Science, One Saturday a Time
It started with a single gathering in London in 2013. Thirteen years later, it finally reaches the American heartland.
Ex-Metro President lands new top political job
Lynn Peterson, a longtime elected official, will serve as chief of staff to the city’s top bureaucrat.
Wilmington Health facility sells for $9.4M
Wilmington Health’s main facility recently sold for more than $9 million. The 66,000-square-foot facility located at 1202 Medical Center Drive was purchased by Charlotte-based real estate investment firm Cedar Square in a $9.4 million sale-leaseback transaction, according to a deed recorded Oct. 21. Wilmington Health will continue leasing the facility, CEO Jeff James told the Business Journal in September. James said the lease term would likely be five years, with most services eventually transferring to a new medical office building under construction in the Midtown Park office area near The Pointe at Barclay. The Wilmington Health facility was originally listed earlier this year at $11.85 million. A Wilmington Health representative did not respond to a request for comment by press time. Steve Hall, vice president of BlueCoast Commercial, represented Wilmington Health in the transaction. “Wilmington Health wanted to unlock the value in its real estate without disrupting a single patient visit, and a sale-leaseback let them do exactly that,” said Hall in a text to the Business Journal Monday. “Cedar Square gets a long-term, absolute net investment anchored by one of the region’s leading physician groups, and Wilmington Health keeps its home on Medical Center Drive while redeploying that capital into care.” The sale marks Cedar Square’s first entry into the Wilmington market, according to Jon Dixon, the firm's managing partner and founder. “We are attracted to Wilmington's growth and what we see as strong long-term fundamentals,” said Dixon in an email Monday. “Population growth, relative affordability, and quality of life make it a compelling market for us. The climate and proximity to the coast are a big part of that appeal.” He added, “We hope to pursue additional opportunities across retail, industrial, medical office and multifamily in Wilmington. We will evaluate opportunities individually and remain disciplined about the properties we pursue. We would like this acquisition to be the beginning of a broader investment presence in Wilmington.” Given the facility’s age, Dixon said the site could eventually be redeveloped, potentially for medical office space or housing. Dixon said recent announcements from UNC Health and Atrium were among the factors behind the firm’s growing interest in Wilmington’s medical-office market. The announcements involve competing proposals for hospital expansion in New Hanover County, which are subject to the state’s Certificate of Need process. “Medical office remains one of the most sought-after asset classes in commercial real estate,” said Hall, “and well-located (medical office buildings) with strong operators are scarce in Southeastern North Carolina.” According to Dixon, Cedar Square describes itself as a boutique, hands-on real estate investment firm that values direct relationships with tenants and the communities where it owns property. “We’re very hands-on, and we like to be in direct contact with all of our tenants and the communities in which we own,” Dixon said. He added, “We’re definitely interested in building a presence with local owners, brokers and businesses or tenants.”
Centene reports early Medicare Advantage rebound
Centene said lower-than-expected medical costs put its Medicare Advantage business on track to break even in 2026, a year earlier than planned.
Talarico raises record $64M in Texas Senate race against Paxton
Democrat James Talarico scored record-breaking numbers in Q3, widening his fundraising lead in the Texas U.S. Senate race against Republican Ken Paxton.
Blanche says Trump isn't trying to meddle with Alaska election results by suing over Senate race
Attorney General Todd Blanche is defending the Trump administration’s lawsuit to block certification of Alaska's Senate results if incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan loses the race.
Nondairy creamer is more popular than ever. But is it healthy?
One researcher said some people are getting as much as 500 calories a day from their coffee.
Trump says people who leak military plans ‘should be shot’
Trump attacked those leaking material to the media, calling them the "scum of the earth" during a rally in Bullhead City, Arizona.