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Toy Story 5, Backrooms and The Breadwinner Vie to Become the Second Biggest Film This Year...
(Welcome to my weekly streaming ratings report, the single best guide to what’s popular in streaming TV and what isn’t. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. If you were forwarded this email, please subscribe to get these insights each week.) Often, people blame “data” for ruining Hollywood, when I’d argue that hype (which can often be debunked by data) is often worse, as you can see in these two headlines. To use a common meme, here’s how it started: and how it’s going: Earlier this year, I read countless (and I mean countless) articles (in almost every mainstream media outlet) about how Heated Rivalry was a huge hit and that it “heated” interest in hockey. But Heated Rivalry wasn’t a huge viewership hit compared to the hype: [ ](https://entertainment.substack.com/p/you-cant-eat-buzzdid-heated-rivalrys) [ You Can’t Eat Buzz…Did Heated Rivalry’s Buzz Translate into Actual Viewership? ](https://entertainment.substack.com/p/you-cant-eat-buzzdid-heated-rivalrys) Entertainment Strategy Guy · Jan 22 [ Read full story ](https://entertainment.substack.com/p/you-cant-eat-buzzdid-heated-rivalrys) In this case, the hype (Heated Rivalry is really popular) belied the data (It didn’t make the top ten charts, meaning it wasn’t a huge hit.1) Even worse, every time I write about this, I get a lot of negative feedback, hence why I only sparingly mention the show these days or add lots of caveats when I write about it, but this just further cements the hype. But companies, and the executives leading them, have to determine strategy based on reality, not media coverage. The NHL committed real marketing dollars to a campaign that didn’t work. Sure enough, the latest NHL season opened to under a million viewers. At some point, you have to focus on what the data says, because real dollars are at stake. And that’s why we have the Streaming Ratings Report! To provide and analyze cold, hard data. Luckily, this week, I can be positive and take a look at a huge opening on streaming, along with a very buzzy horror film that customers kind of like, but don’t really love. And a comedy that tried to rebound on streaming. Today, I’m covering two weeks—21-Sep and 28-Sep—so we have a lot to discuss (nearly 5,000 words worth), including a series of film misses for Netflix, another argument for weekly-released TV shows on streaming, another sitcom tries to avoid the comedy curse, Netflix has two new game shows (one powered by AI), Reacher falling off the charts after a huge run, Prime Video tries its hands at the romcom game**,** a look at the WNBA’s big season, a big night for the VMAs on CBS and MTV, all the flops, bombs and misses, and a whole lot more. (Reminder: The streaming ratings report focuses on the U.S. market and compiles data from Nielsen’s weekly top ten viewership ranks, Luminate’s Top Ten Data, JustWatch and Reelgood interest data, Samba TV household viewership, company datecdotes, Netflix hours viewed data, Google Trends, and IMDb to determine the most popular content. While most data points are current, Nielsen’s data covers the weeks of September 14th to October 4th, 2026. You can find a link to my terminology here.) Subscribe Film - Two Hits and a Miss Come to Streaming… Three very interesting films came to streaming in one week, and I like comparing them since they show the range of theatrical films. One was a huge blockbuster, one was popular, and one was neither. One is a horror film, a buzzy genre; one is a comedy, a struggling genre; and one is an animated family film, the king of the box office. One went to a tiny streamer (HBO Max), one went to a second-tier streamer (Disney+), and one went to the biggest (Netflix). So… If you just went by box office, you’d expect Backrooms—the $197 million grosser, and partner of Obsession for “YouTube Horror Summer”—to dominate on streaming. If you read this report, though, you know that horror films don’t do great on streaming, and that’s the case again. Backrooms opened at 3.8 million hours according to Nielsen, and had 3.9 million hours in its second week. Here’s how that stacks up to other HBO Max films: We’re just getting started with this issue, but the rest is for paid subscribers of the Entertainment Strategy Guy, so if you’d like to find out… ...why I don’t buy Backrooms budget… …two new games shows arrive on streaming… …another sitcom struggles… ...another argument for putting out shows weekly on Netflix... ...and a whole lot more, nearly 5,000 words more... ...please subscribe! We can only keep doing this great work with your support. If you want an idea of just how much content you’d get in a full issue, check out this older issue. Coming Soon! Next week, I’ll be taking a look at the eighth season of Hulu’s The Kardashians, answering the question: will this show ever make the charts? If Mormon wives can make it, surely one of social media’s most popular families can as well. Also, Prime Video has a new horror show based on popular IP, Carrie, Netflix has a horror show starring Josh Hartnett, Below, and Apple TV has a UK import, Small Prophets. Plus a bunch of movies like Disclosure Day heading to Peacock, The Housemaid coming to HBO Max, Ben Affleck’s latest on Apple TV, Animals, and Matchbox the Movie on Apple TV, a John Cena action comedy inspired by Hasbro’s toy cars. The week after is even busier! I’ll look at another IP-based horror show, Crystal Lake, a new MCU show on Disney+, VisionQuest, season two of The Lowdown on FX/Hulu, the fourth seasons of The Diplomat on Netflix and Tulsa King on Paramount+, another season of Love is Blind, and four straight-to-streaming films: Netflix’s Sacrifice (starring Chris Evens, Anya-Taylor-Joy, Vincent Cassel, John Malkovich, Salma Hayek. Charlie XCX), Apple TV’s Tenzing (starring Tom Hiddleston and Willem Defoe), Prime Video’s Love of Your Life (Margaret Qualley) and Masterplan (Stanley Tucci) and a whole lot more, somehow. Long term, here’s some huge IP news: a Game of Thrones movie is coming to theaters, Game of Thrones: Aegon’s Conquest in 2029, while Jon Watts (who helmed three of the most recent Spider-Man movies) is directing the next Star Wars trilogy, to be written by Simon Kinberg. I’m cautiously optimistic for both. It feels obvious to say that making good movies matters, but for bets this big (Star Wars is on a swoon, Game of Thrones hasn’t been to theaters yet), the quality has to be there.
Looking at the Ugly Side of the Paramount-Skydance Merger...And How I’d Fix It
A Message from Our Sponsor Certified Fresh with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes, FX’s Adults is an ensemble comedy series about a group of twenty-somethings in New York leaning on each other to navigate love, work, friendship and family. Don’t sleep on “The Sitcom of the Moment” - Awards Buzz All Episodes now streaming on Hulu on Disney+. Watch The Teaser Trailer... (Welcome to the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a newsletter on the entertainment industr(Welcome to the “Most Important Story of the Week”, my bi-weekly strategy column analyzing the most important (but often not buzziest) news story of the last two weeks. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. Please subscribe.) Before we dive in, I wanted to congratulate Broadcast Now for being the first to report that Netflix’s How to Get to Heaven from Belfast has been cancelled. (I saw this in a write-up by Kasey Moore of Whats-On-Netflix.) More importantly, I wanted to note that, as of yesterday, none of the other trades had reported the news yet. I have half a guess that eventually one of them will report this. Anyways, it’s time to take a break from my deluge of streaming ratings reports to continue my analysis of the Paramount Skydance Warner Bros. Discovery (PSWbD) saga. As I noted last week, a lot of times when folks use the (sometimes cliched) “the good, the bad and the ugly” framing for an article, “the ugly” section is just more bad. Or very, very bad. In this case, yeah, I do think it’s ugly. In more than one way. Unfortunately, we’re only going to have time to tackle one of those ways today: the ugly pile of debt to finance this deal. (In a future article, I may cover the entire process for how it went down, which was very, very ugly.) Last issue, I explained why I liked this deal in a vacuum. Unfortunately, “vacuums” don’t exist outside of space. Let’s dive in. Subscribe Most Important Story of the Week - The Ugliness of the Paramount/Warner Bros. Merger More than one person sent me a note speculating that the big problem with Paramount Skydance buying Warner Bros. Discovery is the “Warner Bros.” portion of the deal. In fact, that’s a take I read a lot about Warner Bros., ever since they caught Netflix’s, and then Paramount-Skydance’s, eye. In short, multiple companies (Time, AOL, AT&T, Discovery) have bought and then regretted buying Warner Bros. Since it’s nearing Halloween, you could almost say it’s like the folks think WB is cursed! It’s a haunted studio—like the town of Derry in movie studio form—and whoever takes possession of it will fall into misery! Yet...I just don’t like that story, because it doesn’t explain the “why” behind why those deals fell through. Especially when Warner Bros. has continued to succeed as a TV and film studio in the intervening two decades. Lord of the Rings? Harry Potter? Game of Thrones? Everything HBO? Considering it never fully owned a broadcast TV channel, this media company has done pretty well. So what went wrong? Well, in recent years, companies bought Warner Bros. instead of the other, smarter option. Explaining POCD (And Applying It to Mergers & Acquisitions) As I explained last issue, one of my favorite frameworks is the POCD tool for evaluating venture capital investments: People Opportunity Context Deal The bar to invest as a VC is high. (Or I might say “was” since cheap interest rates made life easier last decade.) You review a thousand prospectuses, get pitched by a hundred, and invest in the ten best, with the hopes that one of those ten would pay for the rest. That means every element of a deal needed to pay off: you needed the right people running the companies, who could capitalize on the right opportunity, in the context of an industry that was ripe for disruption. If you could then not overpay, you could make some money in a smart deal. The analogy isn’t perfect here, but close enough. For a merger or acquisition to work, you need the combined company (which is the opportunity) to make more than the price you need to pay (which is the deal). Note: the people and context still matter, but with M&A, it’s a little more straightforward: does the opportunity exceed the cost? And usually with Warner Bros., it hasn’t. If you want to find out the single biggest mistake made by the Warner Bros. suitors over the last few years (and my simple fix) become a paid subscriber. I’ll also touch on who I think Paramount-Skydance could (shockingly) consider buying next, TBD, and more. Sign up here.
'Game of Thrones' movie 'Aegon's Conquest' will hit theaters summer 2029
LOS ANGELES — The Targaryens are looking to conquer the summer box office. "Game of Thrones: Aegon's Conquest" will hit theaters June 1, 2029, according to Deadline. The movie, written
‘Game of Thrones’ movie officially set for 2029
‘Game of Thrones: Aegon’s Conquest,’ the first movie spinoff, gets an official release date.
Scientists discover real “dragon” lizard
In the mountainous evergreen forests of the Tak-Kamphaeng Phet Province, Thailand, scientists discovered a new species of lizard. Researchers named the species Acanthosaura syrax, commonly called the Syrax mountain horned dragon, in reference to Queen Rhaenyra Targaryen’s dragon Syrax in the “Game of Thrones” prequel series, “House of the Dragon.” A research team led by...
Kit Harington Joins ‘Harry Potter’ Season 2 As Gilderoy Lockhart In Recasting, Reprising Voice Role
EXCLUSIVE: Game of Thrones star Kit Harington is joining another tentpole fantasy series for HBO. He will play Gilderoy Lockhart in Season 2 of Harry Potter. Harington replaces Nicholas Hoult who was ...
‘Game of Thrones’ star Rory McCann steps in for the late Ray Stevenson in ‘Ahsoka’ season 2 first look
Three years after ‘Ahsoka’ star Ray Stevenson’s death, Disney has unveiled the first look at Rory McCann taking over the role of Baylan Skoll.
How 'Game of Thrones' Created a Generation of Stars
'Game of Thrones' fans gush over 'Mad King' at Royal Shakespeare Theatre
"Game of Thrones: The Mad King," the first stage adaptation of writer George R. R. Martin's bestselling fantasy saga, opened Saturday at the Royal Shakespeare Theatre with Martin — and rapturous fans — in attendance.
'House of the Dragon' showrunner on the season 3 ending, series finale plans
"House of the Dragon" showrunner Ryan Condal broke down Ormund and Helaena's fates in the season 3 finale, the "Game of Thrones" parallels, and teased season 4.
SEC Hot Seat Watch 2026
The SEC enters 2026 with six new head coaches after last year’s carousel turned into a Game of Thrones episode, sending Auburn, Florida, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Kentucky, and LSU to the Indeed portal to make new hires. That churn means most of the pressure this season falls on a smaller group of holdovers who’ve already […]
Dear 'House of the Dragon': Enough with the threats of sexual violence
"House of the Dragon" Season 3 veers too close to the worst impulses of "Game of Thrones."
What to remember before 'House of the Dragon' Season 3
Get your dragons and your blonde wigs ready, because HBO's "House of the Dragon" is back. The glitzy "Game of Thrones" spinoff and prequel premieres its third season Sunday, June
The 50 most-watched TV series finales of all time
Stacker ranked the top 50 most-watched TV series finales, according to Nielsen Ratings. See how "Game of Thrones" compares to "Seinfeld" and "M*A*S*H."
'Game of Thrones' actress says she joined a wellness cult that led to a psychotic break
Hannah Murray reveals how a wellness cult caused a "catastrophic" psychotic break, detailing her experience in a new memoir about magic and madness.
'Game of Thrones' star Hannah Murray had psychotic episode during time in wellness cult, was rushed to hospital
'Game of Thrones' star Hannah Murray has detailed her time spent in a wellness cult, when she had a psychotic episode that felt like 'giving birth through my skull' and was rushed to the hospital.
🗞️ White game of thrones, Barça market... today's back pages
This Friday’s front pages are mainly split between two major focuses: the build-up to the Women’s Champions League final in Oslo, the transfer market and institutional moves in football, and Spani...
Taking a look at four of the most overrated episodes of television in entertainment history
"Pine Barrens" celebrates its 25th anniversary, inspiring a ranking of four overrated TV episodes from The Sopranos, Seinfeld, and Game of Thrones.
The ancient mountain kingdom where fantasy comes to life
They’re Westeros in “Game of Thrones.” They’re “Krypton” in the Superman prequel. The dense forests, twisting rivers and granite peaks of Northern Ireland’s Mourne Mountains have lived many lives and
The ancient mountain kingdom where fantasy comes to life
They’re Westeros in “Game of Thrones.” They’re “Krypton” in the Superman prequel. The dense forests, twisting rivers and granite peaks of Northern Ireland’s Mourne Mountains have lived many lives and
A24 sets 2028 release for ‘Elden Ring’ film. See cast, more
Released in 2022, "Elden Ring" was based on the worldbuilding of George R. R. Martin, author of the book series that inspired "Game of Thrones."
Michael Patrick of 'Game of Thrones' Dies at 35. Motor Neuron Disease, Explained
The actor passed away on April 7 following a three-year-long health battle.
There's a Right-Wing Game of Thrones and It's as Terrible as You'd Think
Sophie Turner and Kit Harington Gagged After Kissing Each Other on Screen While Making Their New Horror Movie
Sophie Turner and Kit Harington can be seen, in a behind-the-scenes clip from their new movie, jokingly retching after sharing an onscreen kiss. 'The Dreadful' stars the two British actors, who formerly played siblings on 'Game of Thrones,' as lovers.
Famous 'Game Of Thrones' Siblings Are Reuniting On Screen As... Lovers
The two actors admitted their make-believe family bond led to some awkwardness while filming their upcoming movie.
Sophie Turner and Kit Harington have 'Game of Thrones' reunion in first look at 'The Dreadful' (exclusive)
See 'Game of Thrones' costars Sophie Turner and Kit Harington reunite in the first look of 'The Dreadful.'