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The politics of war
Israel went to the polls last Tuesday and it is the turn of the United States next Tuesday. The differences in the two elections are self-evident. Compared with the US, which has favourable geography and does everything at scale, Israel is tiny and part of an unstable region. For its elections, it has adopted an almost pure form of proportional representation based on lists. This encourages multiple parties and can make it almost impossible to form a government, as we can now see. The US system is complex in its own way but discourages third parties. Yet for all the differences in size, geography, and political systems, the fates of the two countries are closely connected. Israel has come to depend on the US to sustain its military strength, and over the past few tumultuous years that dependence has created resentment in the United States. The Biden administration was punished for appearing to give Netanyahu a blank check after the Hamas attacks of 7 October 2023, and not holding Israel back as it employed ruthless tactics in Gaza. Because of the treatment of Palestinians, American views of Israel have grown progressively more negative over the past few years. Only a third now support the Israeli government. While on the left, this is largely because of how Israeli forces have operated in Gaza and, more recently, how the settler movement has behaved in the West Bank, for the American right the issue has been about how Benjamin Netanyahu persuaded Donald Trump to forget his wariness about more Middle Eastern wars and agree to a joint attack on Iran, which has gone badly wrong. The Palestine question was not a big issue for the two large Jewish blocs in last Tuesday’s election. Both supported a tough response to Hamas after October 2023 and neither accepts a two-state solution. It was, however, the threat posed by the ethno-nationalist policies of Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, the two extreme members of Netanyahu’s coalition, and their tolerance, even encouragement, of settler violence, that brought out the Arab voters. (In principle this should strengthen their position though to turn into real power would require the ‘Change Bloc’ overcoming their opposition to involving Arab parties. The alternatives are a National Unity government, defection from the Change Bloc to Netanyahu, or deadlock and another round of elections in the new year.) There was also broad support for the war against Iran among the Jewish parties. The difficulty here is that the objectives behind the war have yet to be met, and that continuing with military operations depends on the United States. In this way the two elections have come together at a crucial moment. If Netanyahu hoped that a victory over Iran would help him retain his majority, cementing his legacy as an Israeli war leader, it did not work out that way. Trump also expected a great victory about which he could boast. He promised at most the end of a hateful and aggressive regime, with a record of hostility to both the United States and Israel, or at least the elimination of Iran’s military capabilities and the end of its nuclear programme. Eight months on, there is not much to boast about; vital objectives remain elusive: the Iranian regime is even more hardline than before; the international economy is barely coping with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz; and Saudi Arabia is struggling with an unwanted conflict with the Yemeni Houthis. For all these reasons, the Iran War has been a dark cloud hanging over both elections. Yet the issue has been approached in different ways. Netanyahu sought to push the issue before the election while Trump has been more cautious. Trump’s essential claim is that there is nothing to worry about and he’s still working out what final steps need to be taken to provide a definitive conclusion to the conflict. Netanyahu’s final pitch was that there was lots to worry about. He focused on Israel’s dire security situation, with the Iran War unfinished and the prospect of imminent economic isolation because of international sanctions. For him it is imperative to defeat Iran decisively, and without delay. Why this different response to the same war? Part of the answer lies in how public opinion in the two countries responded to the war. In this post, I show how this came about. We await the outcome of the US midterms but know the result, at least in terms of the share of the vote if not yet the shape of the new government, of the Israeli election. With the elections out of the way Netanyahu is pressing for another round in the war. Trump is less sure. I conclude with thoughts on the importance of how he decides.
Without political renewal, Israel will remain stuck
Despite October 7 and years of upheaval, Israelis are once again left with familiar faces, familiar arguments and a familiar stalemate.
The Israel debate reshaping Jewish American politics
“There are plenty of people who believe, as I do, that Israel has a right to protect itself,” says David to Lauren, both pictured below, over the dinner table. Subscribe “How does starving children protect Israel?” she replies. “I don’t think Israel is intentionally starving children.” “It’s a little bit absurd to be sitting here talking about all of these very specific things,” Lauren says, “as opposed to looking at the totality of him as a candidate, and the 90% of things that you agree with him on.” This is a snapshot from a conversation between a Jewish father and daughter in Michigan ahead of the crucial Senate race. Lauren supports the Democratic candidate, Abdul El-Sayed. Her father is undecided. That is mainly because of El-Sayed’s stance on Israel, one that mirrors a growing wing of the party that has become critical of the US-Israel relationship following the war in Gaza. You’re reading FourSight, a newsletter from Channel 4 News’ expert journalists explaining the complexities of the biggest global stories Could that alienate Jewish American voters who have a strong connection to Israel - and the majority of whom have voted Democratic? A shifting stance on Israel “An ally that takes your money to push you into wars you shouldn’t be fighting is not an ally,” El-Sayed recently told ABC News, referring to the Iran war and how some Americans believe that Israel pushed President Trump into the conflict. Foreign policy has become an economic issue that’s hitting Americans’ pockets, with the soaring cost of petrol and diesel. El-Sayed, pictured below, has opposed military aid for Israel and accused the nation of genocide in Gaza. That led to the pro-Israel lobby group, AIPAC, funding his opponent, Hayley Stevens, to the tune of $30m during the Democratic primary here. “I frequently criticise AIPAC because I think the way that they are pouring dollars into defeating Abdul and others around the country… is really corrosive to American democracy,” Brad Lander says at a canvassing event in Detroit. Lander, a Jewish Democratic congressional candidate in New York, is an ally of Mayor Zohran Mamdani and has come to campaign for El-Sayed. “Democrats and Americans don’t want to keep paying for Netanyahu’s wars,” he says. “They want a reset in the US relationship with Israel.” The 2026 election has clearly been a bruising one for AIPAC; the Wall Street Journal reported that, in an unpublished letter, the group described the cycle as one of the “most challenging environments in recent memory”. Share And significantly, after the midterms, the group will stop direct contributions to candidates through one of its political action committees. Voters’ concerns We followed a group of Jewish canvassers around one suburb in Detroit. They think that among the 130,000 Jewish voters in Michigan, between 20 and 30,000 are undecided. In a swing state where El-Sayed beat his primary rival by just 13,000, that could prove pivotal. We meet one voter, Jen Friedman, pictured below, who has a “Democrats for Rogers” sign, referring to the Republican candidate. The issue of Israel is very important to her because “having a safe haven is crucial”, she tells me. “What I see is one candidate, Mike Rogers, who is associating himself with people who are very proudly American,” says Jen. “Abdul, on the other hand, is associating with people who say they are anti-American.” Friedman raises two issues. Firstly, Hasan Piker, a left-wing streamer who has campaigned alongside El-Sayed and has been criticised for his comments on the US and Israel. [ ](https://channel4news.substack.com/p/who-is-hasan-piker-the-socialist) [ Why Hasan Piker thinks the US needs a socialist Trump ](https://channel4news.substack.com/p/who-is-hasan-piker-the-socialist) Anushka Asthana · Aug 19 [ Read full story ](https://channel4news.substack.com/p/who-is-hasan-piker-the-socialist) The other concern regards an attack on a Michigan synagogue back in March. The FBI said the man was inspired by Hezbollah and had lost relatives in an Israeli airstrike on Lebanon. El-Sayed condemned the antisemitic attack, but also said “hurt people hurt people”. That upset many here, with El-Sayed apologising numerous times for his choice of language. Jews for Abdul As we follow the canvassers, there are still plenty of lawn signs supporting El-Sayed. Elissa Driker, pictured below, runs out of her house wearing a “Jews for Abdul” t-shirt. “I feel like the values that Abdul has align with how I live my Judaism,” she tells me. She says “Abdul is not Hasan Piker, so I don’t conflate them”. I ask why Piker keeps coming up. “It gets weaponised. I don’t know if you watched the debate the other night, but talk about… weaponising fear and weaponising anxiety and all that Islamophobic dog-whistling that was coming towards Abdul.” I also talk to Elissa about how Americans more broadly appear to be questioning the US-Israel relationship and whether American Jews were ready to do that too. “A lot of American Jews are. My experience is absolutely the tide is turning.” For the first time, Gallup found this year that Americans now sympathise more with the Palestinians than the Israelis. In another poll of Jewish American voters, 65% said they were pro-Israel but also critical of Israeli government policies, 52% support cutting or eliminating aid to Israel. Father and daughter Back at the dinner table, I bring up those polls with David Fink. Why does he think Americans sympathise less with Israelis? [ ](https://channel4news.substack.com/p/how-support-for-israel-in-us-is-declining) [ How support for Israel in US is declining ](https://channel4news.substack.com/p/how-support-for-israel-in-us-is-declining) Kiran Moodley · May 4 [ Read full story ](https://channel4news.substack.com/p/how-support-for-israel-in-us-is-declining) “Because the news media and the extremes of both parties are so willing to tell what I think is a false narrative.” Lauren chimes in: “Do you really think the actions of Israel have nothing to do with the shift in the sympathies?” “I think that’s very relevant,” he replies. “I just don’t think that people really have a full understanding.” Lauren again: “It sounds like you’re saying that the shift is due to how the atrocities are being described, as opposed to what the actual atrocities are.” “There have been some things that shouldn’t have happened,” David says. “I think the polling is being driven by politicians who are taking advantage of this issue.” Lauren then asks, “I’m curious what your response would be if my children were killed in an Israeli airstrike and someone said there have been some things that shouldn’t have happened?” A long pause from her father. “Any reference to my grandchildren has a very deep emotional impact on me. Well done,” he says. “I have an empathy for any civilian in war and I don’t mean to belittle those losses. The loss of any one life is a horrible thing. But it doesn’t make it a war crime and it doesn’t make it genocide.” Lauren and David cannot agree but tell me how proud they are of one another for sticking to their convictions and for agreeing to let me sit in on their conversation. I cannot thank them enough for their time, and hope their honesty informs and educates many people during such a fraught election. Abdul El-Sayed: The candidate testing the US - Israel relationship Thanks for reading our latest FourSight newsletter. Subscribe to receive free weekly newsletters from Channel 4 News. Subscribe Share Channel 4 News Leave a comment
Netanyahu and top rival face postelection choices that could redefine Israeli politics
Israelis are deep in political uncertainty as they await final election results. There's a possibility of Jewish and Arab parties forming a coalition to unseat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Final
Netanyahu and top rival face postelection choices that could redefine Israeli politics
Israelis are deep in political uncertainty as they await final election results. There's a possibility of Jewish and Arab parties forming a coalition to unseat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Final
Netanyahu and top rival face postelection choices that could redefine Israeli politics
Israelis are deep in political uncertainty as they await final election results. There's a possibility of Jewish and Arab parties forming a coalition to unseat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Final
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