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Natalie Morales Joins Flow Space Women’s Health Summit in Los Angeles
Flow Space, SHE Media’s digital and live media platform dedicated to women’s health, is holding its summit Oct. 15 at Penske Media Corporation’s L.A. headquarters.
Do Social Media Longevity Trends Actually Work?
Viral health trends across social media claim to increase both stamina and longevity, but do they really work? TODAY medical contributor Dr. Natalie Azar joins TODAY to differentiate fact from fiction by breaking down social media health claims, from cold plunges and cortisol levels to wearable trackers and more.
Robert Wagner shares rare photo with Natalie Wood’s daughter for birthday
Robert Wagner shared a rare photo with Natalie Wood’s daughter, Natasha Gregson Wagner, to celebrate her birthday. Gregson Wagner was raised by her actor stepfather after Wood’s 1981 death.
The Business Behind the Blooms
Natalie Noll ’26 is putting her economics degree to work as the founder of Nova Flora, using lessons in pricing, markets and operations to build her floral business.
Valkyries' Natalie Nakase takes steps to monitor her health after on-court scare
Golden State head coach Natalie Nakase addressed the causes of her on-court collapse late in the Valkyries' series-clinching win Friday, and measures she's taking for her health.
Valkyries’ Natalie Nakase takes steps to monitor health after scare
Golden State head coach Natalie Nakase addressed the causes of her on-court collapse late in the Valkyries’ series-clinching win Friday, and measures she’s taking for her health.
Britney Spears and Natalie Portman understudied this Broadway star’s breakout role in the ’90s
Laura Bell Bundy is looking back on a pair of superstar understudies who shadowed her during her breakout performance in the off-Broadway musical ‘Ruthless!’ — Britney Spears and Natalie Portman.
Valkyries to face defending-champion Aces, questions in semifinals
The Golden State Valkyries are the highest seed left in the WNBA playoffs, but Las Vegas was 3-0 in regular-season meetings between the teams. Can Natalie Nakase's team stop the star-studded Aces?
The Enemies Project: WashU father-daughter duo fight against political extremism
With over 90000 subscribers on YouTube, senior Sadie Rosen and her father Larry Rosen (B.A. ‘88) reveal the power of empathy through their channel, The Enemies Project. The pair bring together strangers with fundamentally opposed political beliefs for a sit-down conversation. Their docuseries aims to break online echo chambers through vulnerability. It’s working, as across their 16 uploaded episodes, all the enemies have left connected.
SSM Health Dean Medical Group nurses vote to unionize
This comes just a few months after nurses at SSM Health St. Mary’s Hospital voted for union representation.
“SNL”’s Ashley Padilla debuts ‘totally normal’ take on Trump aide Natalie Harp in cold open
“She’s like the girl from ‘Obsession,’ but blonde,” James Austin Johnson as Trump quips.
In Focus: How Sen. Kelda Roys hopes to expand mental health resources
She also talked about the voluntary “do not purchase” list for handguns, and links between mental health and social media.
'SNL' spoofs Trump and Mamdani bromance, skewers Natalie Harp
"Saturday Night Live" is back! The NBC sketch show returned on Sept. 26 with the premiere of Season 52, hosted by New York Knicks star Jalen Brunson and with musical
From fertility to menopause: Women's health workshop in Miami aims to empower women through education
Biohack-It is hosting a women’s health workshop and panel in Miami on Sunday, Oct. 4, featuring fertility specialist Dr. Natalie Crawford and OB-GYN Dr. Jessica Shepherd.
Sponsored Content: HMG Health Matters: Fear of falling increases risk of falling
Dr. Natalie Street of HMG Primary Care at Medical Plaza explains why having a fear of falling actually increases a person’s risk of falling. She also shares some tips on how to address that f…
Natalie Harp showed Trump coverage clips before he issued media ban
(CNN) — President Donald Trump’s close aide Natalie Harp showed him clips of media coverage last week before he banned Politico, CNN and MS NOW from the White House, people
Bay Area sports calendar, Sept. 18-20
Coach Natalie Nakase and the Valkyries will host Portland at 7 p.m. Friday. (Ion)
Jon Ossoff mentions Natalie Harp while condemning Trump's administration
During his 16 August campaign event in Atlanta, Georgia, Senator Jon Ossoff mentioned White House aide Natalie Harp when condemning the Trump administration's handling of the Iran war and USS Lincoln sailors
Exoplanets Offer Clues to What Lies Beyond Our Solar System
Thousands of planets have been discovered beyond our solar system, offering clues to where life might thrive and whether Earth is truly unique.
Trump gave $45,000 holiday gifts to Natalie Harp and two other White House aides
President Donald Trump gave sizable holiday gifts to four White House aides, according to new financial disclosures released by the administration.
Trump gave $45K holiday gifts to Natalie Harp and 2 other White House aides
A White House official said the cash gifts were not related to the "individuals' official government duties, and therefore are entirely permissible under relevant legal and ethical standards"
Trump Doled Out $45,000 Cash Gifts to Natalie Harp and Other Aides Last Year
The money, listed as “cash gift for the holidays,” was detailed in financial disclosure forms released by the administration.
Trump Doled Out $45,000 Cash Gifts to Natalie Harp and Other Aides Last Year
The money, listed as “cash gift for the holidays,” was detailed in financial disclosure forms released by the administration.
Trump gave Natalie Harp and two other aides $45,000 each in cash gifts for holidays
President Donald Trump gave Natalie Harp and two other White House aides $45,000 each in cash gifts, according to financial disclosure statements.
Trump gave $45,000 holiday gifts to Natalie Harp and two other White House aides
President Donald Trump has given substantial holiday gifts to four White House aides, according to financial disclosures released by the administration | 830 WCCO
Trump gave $45,000 cash gifts to Natalie Harp, two other close aides
Financial disclosures show the sums were equivalent to nearly one-third of each of their salaries. Experts say the gifts are without precedent and may violate the law.
Natalie Portman welcomes third child, her first with Tanguy Destable
The “Black Swan” actress previously shared that it was “such a privilege and a miracle” to have another child.
Natalie Portman welcomes third child, her first with Tanguy Destable
Natalie Portman gave birth to her third child, her first with boyfriend Tanguy Destable, last month. She also shares Aleph, 15, and Amalia, 9, with ex Benjamin Millepied.
380 SSM Health Dean Medical Group nurses to vote on union in Dane County
Nurses will vote on union representation at 10 Dane County clinics, citing staffing, burnout and patient care.
Deleted tweets show Natalie Harp’s zealous support of Trump on January 6
Years before Natalie Harp became a key White House aide to President Donald Trump, she posted more than 150 tweets demonstrating extraordinary devotion to him on January 6, 2021.
A Natalie Harp conspiracy theory (not really)
It starts with her work at a hard-right, pro-Russia cable network.
She’s a Trump acolyte. He’s a ‘gringo Sandinista.’ Meet the Harps.
Trump aide Natalie Harp is estranged from her brother, Preston, who has used social media and recent interviews to criticize her and highlight his own left-wing politics.
Politics Unplugged Podcast: Headlines with Tony Cani and Marcus Dell’Artino
Consultants Tony Cani and Marcus Dell’Artino return to the pod to talk about the latest headlines, including the polls in the Governor’s race. Then Dennis and Colin talk about Natalie Harp and her odd relationship with the President.
Politics Unplugged Podcast: Headlines with Tony Cani and Marcus Dell’Artino
Consultants Tony Cani and Marcus Dell’Artino return to the pod to talk about the latest headlines, including the polls in the Governor’s race. Then Dennis and Colin talk about Natalie Harp and her odd relationship with the President.
Seattle Children’s names new CIO
Dr. Natalie Pageler has been appointed senior VP and chief information officer after years spent as a pediatrician and clinical informaticist at Stanford Children’s Health and Stanford University School of Medicine.
What Different Cortisol Levels Mean for Your Health
Most people associate cortisol with stress but it actually plays a bigger role in daily life. NBC News medical contributor Dr. Natalie Azar joins TODAY to explain what cortisol is, how to know if your levels are off, how to regulate it, and more.
‘My Guardian and Protector’: Natalie Harp letters express her devotion to Trump
President Donald Trump’s close aide Natalie Harp expressed her utmost loyalty to him in at least two letters addressed to the president, which were published by The Daily Beast on Thursday amid increased scrutiny of the close aide’s relationship to Trump.
4 Doctor-Approved Exercises To Manage Cortisol Levels
In TODAY.com’s Expert Tip of the Day, Dr. Natalie Azar, rheumatologist and NBC News medical contributor, shares common myths about the stress hormone and how to keep it in check.
4 Doctor-Approved Exercises To Manage Cortisol Levels
In TODAY.com’s Expert Tip of the Day, Dr. Natalie Azar, rheumatologist and NBC News medical contributor, shares common myths about the stress hormone and how to keep it in check.
Now Everyone Knows Natalie Harp
The West Wing’s explosive response to a fleeting jab didn’t kill the story. It enabled days of coverage.
Obama strategist turns on rising Dem star over viral Trump attack: 'Gratuitous and unnecessary'
Obama White House strategist David Axelrod called Jon Ossoff's mention of Natalie Harp "gratuitous and unnecessary," despite the clip's 6 million views.
Barry or Beto? How should Everton's XI look?
Speaking to BBC Radio Merseyside, Everton fan Natalie Bargery has picked her XI for the Crystal Palace fixture at Hill Dickinson Stadium on Saturday. Bargery described Branthwaite as the "first outfield name on the teamsheet" and added he is in "100%" of Evertonians starting line-ups.
We Think We Found ‘Human Printer’ Natalie Harp’s Printer Setup. It’s Bulky
A fairly bulky printer, and a totally unnecessary backup battery. Why?
Natalie Harp's brother says she has 'unhealthy obsession' with Trump
Preston Harp alleged sister, Trump aide Natalie Harp, has unhealthy infatuation with the president.
Natalie Harp, Trump’s Most Devoted Aide, Is Always by His Side. What Exactly Does She Do?
President Trump’s White House aide Natalie Harp is always by his side. What, exactly, does she do?
Who is Trump aide Natalie Harp? Loyal assistant suddenly in the spotlight
What to know about Natalie Harp, the Trump aide whom Ossoff put in the spotlight
The president’s executive assistant was among a small group of people who secretly switched planes with Trump over a potential Iranian threat, as noted by Sen. Jon Ossoff.
White House fury at top Democrat who named Trump’s ‘closest aide’
Jon Ossoff, the Georgia senator, said Trump’s ‘security blanket’ Natalie Harp embodied a team of advisers who told the US president only what he wanted to hear
Ossoff Gets Under Trump’s Skin With Natalie Harp Comment
The Georgia senator’s mention of the president’s close aide prompted a seemingly coordinated White House attack.
Judge orders businesses out of Rochester warehouse over fire safety concerns
A Monroe County Supreme Court judge has ordered businesses inside a massive warehouse on Buffalo Road to temporarily stop operations after the city raised concerns about a serious fire safety risk.
Even Some Cabinet Members Didn’t Join Trump’s Secret Flight. Here’s Who Did.
The White House aides Natalie Harp and Dan Scavino were among those traveling with the president on a military jet.
Anya Taylor-Joy Casually Roasts Male Actors For 1 Thing Some Of Them Do
Kristen Stewart and Natalie Portman would likely agree.
Valkryies coach addresses Sophie Cunningham's trans athletes comments
Valkryies coach Natalie Nakase on Sunday addressed Sophie Cunningham's stance about trans athletes in women's sports with reporters. Caitlin Clark mostly avoided doing so.
Valkyries coach Natalie Nakase defends trans athletes in women's sports as culture war engulfs WNBA
Four WNBA coaches addressed trans athletes in women's sports within days as protests grow outside games supporting Sophie Cunningham's stance.
In Print: ‘Teaming With Insects: Entomology for Grades 3-12’
Publication title Teaming With Insects: Entomology for Grades 3-12 Purdue authors Natalie Carroll Christian Oseto Timothy Gibb Publisher Purdue University Press Publication date Dec. 15…
The Chicks crack joke about Mitch McConnell’s ongoing absence during New Jersey concert
The Chicks singer Natalie Maines cracked a joke about Mitch McConnell’s ongoing absence from the Senate during the band’s show in Atlantic City.
Can Wisconsin’s health apprenticeships become a national model? UW Health thinks so
by Natalie Yahr / Wisconsin Watch, Wisconsin Watch July 23, 2026 Click here to read highlights from the story UW Health leaders created a new company
Lubbock woman’s custom shoe business now selling internationally
Natalie Buxkemper, owner of The Sewing Studio on the South Loop, started Patchwork Kicks about a year ago.
Paul Wesley marries Natalie Kuckenburg in an intimate civil ceremony
‘The Vampire Diaries’ star Paul Wesley got married in an intimate wedding to Natalie Kuckenburg.
Best of the Beehive: Art & Entertainment
Our 2026 Best of the Beehive Issue is here! ead on for all winners and finalists from the Arts & Entertainment category.
Coles awards more than $3.5 million to help turn producers’ ideas into reality
June 21, 2026 -- More than $3.5 million in grants has been awarded to eight small and medium-sized businesses across Australia through the lates...
Should a 6-foot-7 center have the Flyers' attention in first round of draft?
Will the Flyers be interested in Brooks Rogowski, a massive center, at the 2026 NHL draft?
Readers Pick Top Columbus Spots for Shopping and Entertainment
We asked, you answered—here are the places readers voted for in our Best of Columbus 2026 poll for shopping and entertainment.
Natalie Palamides Signs With Brillstein Entertainment Partners
IMDb, the world's most popular and authoritative source for movie, TV and celebrity content.
Natalie Palamides Signs With Brillstein Entertainment Partners
Natalie Palamides, the actress, comedian, writer and director, has signed with Brillstein for management in all areas.
Natalie Milian Orbis tops $1M, lands Sheriff’s backing in unopposed Miami-Dade Commission race
Eight more days until she wins unopposed.
Great OB/GYN care at St. John’s Health hinges on strong doctor-patient partnership
Meet Dr. Natalie Meadows-Eggleston, St. John’s Health’s newest full time OB/GYN. As part of SJH effort to expand access to women’s healthcare in Jackson.
Standouts on, off field: 4 finalists for Indianapolis City Female Athlete of the Year
Crispus Attucks' Kamrah Banks, Heritage Christian's Natalie Curnutt, Covenant Christian's Emiline Flatt, Bishop Chatard's Julia Score finalists.
Daniel Radcliffe and Mariska Hargitay Toast ‘Every Brilliant Thing’ and the Center for Youth Mental Health
Dr. Zandy Forbes, Ayesha Shand, Dr. Charlie Shaffer, Elizabeth Shaffer, and Anna Wintour served as co-hosts for the evening, which welcomed Louisa Jacobson, Derek Blasberg, Natalie and Ava Massenet, and more.
I couldn't afford elder care for my mom. Free adult day care helped.
Natalie Tucker says her mother's falls and memory loss made caregiving overwhelming until she found a Medicaid-supported adult day care program.
The Science of Growing Up
Natalie Brito, a professor of psychology, researches how both the families we’re raised in and the societies we live in, shape us.
LHU student revolutionizing stream restoration with rock-powered science
Natalie Brown kneels beside a humming wet lab setup at Commonwealth University-Lock Haven, calipers in hand, measuring the promise of Pennsylvania’s streams. The master’s candidate in biology regularly tests how everyday rocks could supercharge freshwater mussel recovery in the West Branch Susquehanna River, blending her geology roots with cutting-edge experiments. Her work is directly supporting […]
Outstanding Seniors in the College of Science: Natalie Rawlings
The College of Science is proud to recognize 12 outstanding seniors who went above and beyond during their time as Wildcats. Natalie Rawlings is this semester's recipient from Molecular & Cellular Biology!
Governor Stein Recognizes Black Maternal Health Week
Today Governor Josh Stein joined Senator Natalie Murdock, the Legislative Black Caucus, and the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services to…
2025-26 Academic All-America® Woen's Basketball teams announced for all NCAA and NAIA divisions
Four CSC Academic All-America ® Team Member of the Year recipients including University of Connecticut’s Azzi Fudd, Olivia Reed Thyne from Colorado Mesa University, Carroll University’s Natalie Gricius, and Macy Sievers of Dordt University, highlight the 2025-26 CSC Women's Basketball Academic All-America® teams for NCAA Divisions I, II, III and the NAIA announced by College Sports Communicators.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
'I quit my job over health anxiety - now life's a bed of roses'
Natalie Dyson from Blackpool has bloomed since leaving a job over health anxiety to open a florist.
Everyone wants to own a piece of the Bay Area’s new women’s sports franchise
From Warriors head coach Steve Kerr to former athletes including Abby Wambach and Natalie Coughlin, LOVB San Francisco has more than 50 owners.
She started a sparkling tea business with her husband; alcohol-free
Natalie Chiu and her husband are both scientists and embrace different ways of thinking. Knowing each other's strengths and weaknesses helped them grow the business.
State Supreme Court debate postponed due to candidate illness
In a statement, Chris Taylor’s campaign said she had fallen ill and the debate would be rescheduled.
Personnel note: Natalie Brown departs RSA, heads back to Senate as Danny Burgess Senior Aide
'During her time with us, she added significant value to our clients and brought a level of direction and strategy to our Session approach and appropriations process.'
Markiplier to Microdramas: The Ankler x NAB Show’s Future of Entertainment
Share Subscribe Vegas, baby! The Ankler is heading back to NAB Show for a second year in a row — and doubling down on conversations with the smartest people in the industry. From April 18–22, we’re partnering again with the industry’s biggest media and tech gathering to break down the Business of Media and Entertainment as it’s actually evolving: faster, riskier and increasingly driven by new formats, new audiences and new power players. This curated series will bring together top creators, executives and innovators to tackle the forces reshaping the industry — from the AI disruption of Hollywood’s creative ecosystem to the rise of the creator economy, shifting audience behavior and the changing economics of production. We’ll be rolling out more programming in the coming weeks — including top speakers from leading AI studios, prediction markets and beyond — so keep an eye on the Business of Media and Entertainment hub. But first up, we’re announcing two panels about what’s actually working in Hollywood: The Scary-Smart Business of Horror A good scare has become one of the entertainment economy’s most reliable engines. With disciplined budgets, built-in fandoms and global box office upside, horror consistently outperforms. From theatrical releases to streaming-first originals and creator-driven IP, the genre is artistically flexible and financially durable — and one of the last truly communal experiences for Gen Z and Gen Alpha audiences. Join YouTube creator Mark Fischbach, aka Markiplier, whose independent feature Iron Lung earned more than $50 million at the global box office, Atomic Monster president Michael Clear and screenwriter Akela Cooper (M3GAN, Malignant) for a conversation moderated by Like & Subscribe’s Natalie Jarvey about why horror travels so effectively across platforms and borders, how studios and independents are building sustainable genre pipelines and why the next wave of breakout franchises may emerge from unexpected sources. Inside the Microdrama Boom Short-form serialized storytelling is having a major moment. Microdramas, social-native series and creator-led narratives are capturing massive audiences with low-cost, rapid production cycles and direct-to-fan distribution. What was once dismissed as niche or experimental is now attracting major platform investment. Moderated by Jarvey, this panel of microdrama creators and executives — including one of the format’s top stars and producers, Kasey Esser, and Dhar Mann Studios’ head of vertical content, Erin McFarlane — examines how format innovation, fandom dynamics and algorithmic discovery are reshaping the economics of scripted storytelling and what traditional studios can learn from these agile models. For sponsorship opportunities, contact Lynne@theankler.com Share
Key takeaways from President Trump's State of the Union address
President Trump delivered his first State of the Union address of his second term Tuesday night. We break down what he said, what his political messaging was, and how it previews the administration's goals through the midterm elections. We also analyze how the Democrats responded.This episode: senior White House correspondent Tamara Keith, congressional reporter Sam Gringlas, senior political editor & correspondent Domenico Montanaro, and senior national political correspondent Mara Liasson.This podcast was produced and edited by Casey Morell & Bria Suggs.Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.Special thanks to Kelsey Snell, Natalie Winston and Neil Tevault.Listen to every episode of the NPR Politics Podcast sponsor-free, unlock access to bonus episodes with more from the NPR Politics team, and support public media when you sign up for The NPR Politics Podcast+ at plus.npr.org/politics.
Natalie Portman took very specific momento from 'Star Wars' set
Natalie Portman snagged an unusual prop from the 'Star Wars' films — but lost it.
Memphis People in Business for Feb. 5, 2026
A look at promotions, hirings, movers and newsmakers in the Memphis area business scene.
National Girls & Women in Sports Day: Natalie Thomas
MARQUETTE, Mich. -- "To me, representing women in sports means competing every day with purpose and pride."
Natalie Portman, Seth Rogen debut new movies at Sundance Film Festival
The Sundance Film Festival hosted the world premieres of two comedies on Saturday. Olivia Wilde's “The Invite” debuted at the Eccles Theater in Park City, Utah. It marks her third
UNA announces National Girls and Women in Sports Day Clinic for January 31 - University of North Alabama Athletics
FLORENCE, Ala. (December 30, 2025) – For a second straight year, the University of North Alabama Department of Athletics will host a free youth clinic to celebrate National Girls and Women in Sports Day on Saturday, January 31 from 10 a.m. to noon at the UNA Rec Center.
I sold my home and moved to Europe at 55. I'm not living my dream life yet, but it's better than working my life away in the US.
Natalie Lynch moved from San Francisco to Europe with her dog last year. She told BI that her life isn't perfect, but it's better than in the US.
Burnout led me to build Bala — and caught up with me again as we grew. Here's how I manage now.
Burnout recovery inspired Bala, but founder Natalie Holloway found lasting relief through lifestyle changes, self-kindness, and using a life coach.
Natalie Ring leads Marquette to win in NCAA volleyball tournament
The Golden Eagles won a match in the first round of the NCAA tournament for ninth time in program history.
World Health Organization recommends GLP-1 drugs for obesity
The World Health Organization is now recommending GLP-1 drugs for adults trying to manage obesity. Dr. Natalie Azar explains how this historical shift changes the approach for patients.