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Netflix’s Summer of Bummer
(Welcome to the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a newsletter on the entertainment industry and business strategy. I write a weekly Streaming Ratings Report and a bi-weekly strategy column, along with occasional deep dives into other topics, like today’s article. Please subscribe.) Today, I’ve got a guest post from longtime friend of the newsletter, Brandon Katz. I’ve been trying to find time all summer to look at Netflix’s straight-to-streaming film slate, but between a pre-planned trip and Nielsen moving up their streaming data timeline, I’ve been swamped. So I reached out to Brandon, one of my favorite fellow analysts, to write about it. And I feel like he captured the tone and data focus of the newsletter perfectly. You can connect with Brandon on LinkedIn and Twitter. Enjoy! Don’t worry, folks. You’re in safe hands with me. To ease any anxieties about an interloper in ESG’s domain, I’ll start by stealing one of his best framing devices: headlines. Box office flops are covered in the same way the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles eye pizza: with cartoonish insatiability. I would know. I’m a former reporter who wrote nearly identical headlines: Yet, intentionally or not, streaming misses get treated with kids gloves, filtered through a rosy lens: In the last six years, U.S. streaming viewership has become nearly as transparent as the box office, but the data often arrives weeks later, in a number of less intuitive metrics, and with nary an official budget to be found. This plays into the Wall Street-whispering narratives major streamers have been cultivating for years. They get a pass in a way that theatrical studios simply don’t. Subscribe Netflix’s Summer Slate Not a single Netflix original film released between May and August this year opened above 20 million U.S. TV hours, per Nielsen. That benchmark usually serves as the EntStrategyGuy’s floor for a streaming hit on Netflix. None of these films enjoyed a hit-cementing single week of 20-plus million hours during their runs. Netflix’s two best films were true crime docs, Maternal Instinct (16.5 million hours) and The Crash (19.7 million), the best overall week for a film this summer. Great for most other streamers, but not necessarily what we’re used to seeing from Netflix. For an overly-dramatic comparison, Happy Gilmore 2 opened last summer to around 47 million hours (celebrity cameos, baby!). Zooming out, the picture looks even worse. In 2026, Netflix’s five biggest scripted summer films posted the lowest average (28.6 million hours) and median (28.8 million hours) eight-week viewership totals of the past four years. Now, it’s unrealistic and unfair to expect Netflix to deliver a _KPop Demon Hunters-_sized hit every year. But it’s also not ideal to see the size of their hits shrinking over the last few summers. Let’s quickly run through some of the notable summer misses. Jennifer Lopez and Brett Goldstein’s perfectly fine romcom, Office Romance, fell off the charts after 20 million hours in its first two weeks. Top films usually last for four-plus weeks. Starry titles ideally don’t decay that fast either. Homegrown star Millie Bobby Brown couldn’t prevent the snappy Enola Holmes franchise from diminishing returns. At 14.3 million U.S. hours, the third film posted roughly half of what the first two films did in their first two weeks. What’s on Netflix calculated that per-day global views were down nearly 60% from the second movie. The Whisper Man did okay with more than 36 million hours over its first four weeks. But I expected a little more juice from a film featuring Robert De Niro, Michelle Monaghan, and Adam Scott. Kevin Hart’s Ladies First collected just 11.2 million hours total across two weeks. That’s a big miss for one of Netflix’s go-to stars. Plopping into the same bucket are Sunny Sandler’s Don’t Say Good Luck (10.3 million in two weeks) and John Cena’s Little Brother (17.5 million). Meanwhile, English-language originals Color Book (June 19), In the Hand of Dante (June 24) and Heartstopper Forever (July 17) never sniffed Nielsen’s Top 10 at all, despite needing only 2 to 5 million hours to land in the top ten most weeks. (By my count, eleven English-language scripted original films released between May and August did chart). It’s only fair to mention that Swapped (1-May) posted nearly 42 million U.S. hours over five weeks (the longest Netflix original run this summer) and is currently their eighth most-watched English-language film ever worldwide. Remarkably Bright Creatures (37 million, 4 weeks) and Voicemails for Isabelle (27 million, 4 weeks) weren’t bombs either. Still, overall, I think it’s fair to say this was a quieter summer season than we’re used to seeing from the market-leader. You might not realize that given the language commonly used in public analysis. The Twist Despite the starkly black-and-white tone of the coverage, here’s the twist: when many box office bombs arrive on streaming, their viewership looks a whole lot like many of Netflix’s supposedly successful summer releases. Hmm, where have we heard that one before? Masters of the Universe topped out at $65 million stateside against a $170 million budget_._ I’ll admit, Skeletor ripping sleeveless curls as a gym bro and bodyslamming Adam’s co-workers was funny. But, much to the chagrin of my bank account, my laughter doesn’t launch franchises. Yet the He-Man reboot opened to 19.6 million hours (from a Wednesday five-day opening instead of just one weekend), on par with Hoppers on Disney+ (19.4 million). It put up nearly 47 million hours over its first six weeks, bigger than all of Netflix’s summer releases. Pretty darn healthy and likely to land among the 25 most-watched movies on streaming this year. Sticking with Amazon, The Sheep Detectives just barely broke even at the box office with $133 million worldwide (and only $66 million domestic). I never expected cloven-hooved, cud-chewing mammals to be able to bring me to tears. Yet that’s exactly how I found myself at the end of this surprisingly affecting movie (#NoShame). It was likely the unexpected quality in a family-friendly film that powered its streaming over-performance. Sheep Detectives delivered a solid run for Prime video netting 26.2 million hours! How about franchise IP? Star Wars: The Mandalorian & Grogu had the lowest opening ($81 million) and lowest-grossing Disney-era live-action Star Wars film ($178 million domestic). One day before release, its Heat score (19.8%)—audiences who list their interest as a 7/7—fell behind blockbusters Wicked (21%), Superman (23%), Fantastic Four: First Steps (23%), Michael (23%), Toy Story 5 (26%) and Avatar: Fire and Ash (27%), according to Greenlight Analytics. The urgent enthusiasm just wasn’t there. On streaming, Mando opened to weeks of 12.1 million, 6.1 million and 2.7 million hours (21 million total) over its first three frames. Not the numbers Lucasfilm was hoping for nor the numbers of a streaming hit. But they’re in the same vicinity as some Netflix summer releases with $345 million at the global box office to offset a smidgen of the pain. Final Thoughts So why oh why does this nuance gap exist? Four key reasons: Data Literacy: A “$100 million opening” just makes sense. After decades of box office reporting, even casual movie fans are well-versed in the benchmarks of hits and home runs. There’s an immediate shorthand. But “16.5 million” hours doesn’t land nearly as cleanly. Despite leaps of progress, the streaming ratings era is still in its infancy compared to theatrical. The EntStrategyGuy and I met thanks to a late 2010s group chat of data nerds hungry to find a shred of certainty in nebulous streaming performance. I’m not surprised to see “No. 1 on Netflix” still getting misconstrued out in the wild. Timing: By Friday morning, we have the box office’s Thursday night previews totaled, allowing us to better project the weekend’s expectations. From there, ticket sales are reported daily. By Sunday, the film’s fate is usually finalized, at least in terms of public perception. In streaming, Nielsen recently improved its delay to…two weeks. The medium isn’t forced to contend with instant gratification as harshly. Financials: Theatrical film budgets are a mere Google away. Profit and loss is calculated in the cold and unforgiving naked light of day for all to see. But finding the vast majority of streaming exclusive movie budgets requires the forensic investigation skills of a Criminal Minds detective. Also, it’s very difficult to calculate how much revenue/value a straight-to-streaming films provides a streamer. This is why there are so few stories about streaming original movies “losing X amount of money”. On top of that, marketing budgets are far greater for theatrical movies than streaming exclusive movies, which leads to earlier and better awareness. This then translates to a wider pool of potential interest. Narrative Control: Netflix is the only major streaming service to publish weekly first-hand viewership data and annual engagement reports. Naturally, some headlines borrow their first-hand framing**.** Other streamers benefit from their comparative lack of transparency. They may occasionally announce vague performance platitudes such as Apple TV’s Mayday becoming its “biggest film debut on the platform to date over its first 18 days,” and that it ranked No. 1 with left-handed viewers in its first weekend. (Fine, I made up that second one). But, for the most part, they keep first-hand viewership shrouded in mystery to avoid bad press. Especially for outlets that demand multiple articles per day from their writers, it’s an easy (and understandable) way for some reporters to hit their daily article quota by just repeating what the streamers have told them. TL:DR version: Streaming-exclusive movies are asked to do different things than theatrical movies, but that doesn’t mean they should escape judgment. Both still need to draw enough eyeballs to justify their cost within the proper performance contexts. The more cleanly we can inject a little nuance into streaming analysis, the better we’ll understand the audience and content trends that drive this industry. And that’s what all of this is really about: knowing what audiences actually want! Brandon Katz is the Director of Insights & Content Strategy at Greenlight Analytics where he focuses on evaluating the ever-fluid media landscape to unearth understanding, opportunity and value. Greenlight Analytics is the entertainment intelligence consulting company redefining how Hollywood finds, understands, and activates audiences. Prior to joining Greenlight Analytics, he served as the senior entertainment industry strategist at Parrot Analytics, and as a full-time entertainment industry reporter covering the Xs and Os of Hollywood, most notably with TheWrap and the Observer.
Kitt Peak National Observatory honors Tohono O’odham land, language by renaming science center
Long before the National Science Foundation ever looked up to the starry sky searching for answers about the mysterious cosmos and universe, O’odhams like Jacelle Ramon-Sauberan stood atop I’oligam Du’ag — or Manzanita Shrub Mountain.
Chris Koza album release concert Oct. 24
Lanesboro Arts is thrilled to celebrate the release of Chris Koza’s latest album, “Millsmoke on the Skyline,” with a concert at the St. Mane Theatre at 7 p.m. on October 24. Chris Koza is a composer and performer based in Denver and Minneapolis. In his writing, Koza both honors and builds on the vast genre of Americana music. For every song that sounds like it could be strummed from a boxcar clacking slowly across a grassy midwestern plain, there’s a tune sailing from a city rooftop, echoing across a valley of streets and traffic, or a melody twisting and shimmering like a dim frequency deep into the starry night.Both as a solo artist and with his band Rogue Valley, Koza has supported and shared the stage with artists such as Brandi Carlile, Gordon Lightfoot, Ingrid Michaelson, The Jayhawks, Neko Case, Kathleen Edwards, Dan Wilson, and many more. His music regularly appears on ABC’s “General Hospital,” “60 Minutes,” and “Good Morning America.” Koza’s song, “Be Wild,” was also featured in a state of Minnesota tourism campaign.#placement_932485_0_i{width:100%;max-width:550px;margin:0 auto;}var rnd = window.rnd || Math.floor(Math.random()*10e6);var pid932485 = window.pid932485 || rnd;var plc932485 = window.plc932485 || 0;var abkw = window.abkw || '';var absrc = 'https://ads.empowerlocal.co/adserve/;ID=181918;size=0x0;setID=932485;type=js;sw='+screen.width+';sh='+screen.height+';spr='+window.devicePixelRatio+';kw='+abkw+';pid='+pid932485+';place='+(plc932485++)+';rnd='+rnd+';click=CLICK_MACRO_PLACEHOLDER';var _absrc = absrc.split("type=js"); absrc = _absrc[0] + 'type=js;referrer=' + encodeURIComponent(document.location.href) + _absrc[1];document.write('');Koza’s latest offering, “Millsmoke on the Skyline,” grants the newfound outsider perspective of the rich life and golden fleeting days throughout the rural Midwest. Weaving melody and lyrics into vignettes and narratives set in places where love is powerful, dreams are vast, and life is beautiful.The St. Mane Theatre box office will open at 6 p.m. on the day of the concert. Tickets will be sold in person at the door or can be purchased online at lanesboroarts.org. Seating at the St. Mane theatre is first come, first served. Tickets are on sale now for $25 for general admission or $22 for Lanesboro Arts members.The 2026 performing arts season at Lanesboro Arts is made possible by our season sponsor, Poet Refinery, as well as our concert level sponsors, High Court Pub, Krage Insurance Agency & Preble Farmers Mutual, Stone Mill Clothing & Gifts, E2 Boutique/Amish Experience, and The Cottage House Inn, and community sponsors, VIS Plumbing, Granny’s Liquor, Kingsley Mercantile, Batstone CPA, Clara’s Eatery, IGA, Niagara Cave, and Huntington Electric. This event is made possible by the voters of Minnesota through a Minnesota State Arts Board grant, thanks to a legislative appropriation from the Arts and Cultural Heritage Fund. #placement_932489_0_i{width:100%;max-width:550px;margin:0 auto;}var rnd = window.rnd || Math.floor(Math.random()*10e6);var pid932489 = window.pid932489 || rnd;var plc932489 = window.plc932489 || 0;var abkw = window.abkw || '';var absrc = 'https://ads.empowerlocal.co/adserve/;ID=181918;size=0x0;setID=932489;type=js;sw='+screen.width+';sh='+screen.height+';spr='+window.devicePixelRatio+';kw='+abkw+';pid='+pid932489+';place='+(plc932489++)+';rnd='+rnd+';click=CLICK_MACRO_PLACEHOLDER';var _absrc = absrc.split("type=js"); absrc = _absrc[0] + 'type=js;referrer=' + encodeURIComponent(document.location.href) + _absrc[1];document.write('');
Nirvana is awarded the 2026 Video Vanguard Award: What to know about the MTV VMAs
Nirvana was awarded the 2026 Video Vanguard Award at the starry 2026 MTV Video Music Awards. Madonna opened the show and was joined by her recent collaborators Sabrina Carpenter and
A Dolly Parton tribute, Madonna performs, LISA wins: What to know about the 2026 MTV VMAs
Madonna opened the starry 2026 MTV Video Music Awards and was joined by her recent collaborators Sabrina Carpenter and Charli xcx. LISA won the first award for best pop. Kacey
Madonna opens starry 2026 MTV VMAs, LISA wins first award: What to know about the show
Madonna opened the starry 2026 MTV Video Music Awards. She was joined by her recent collaborators Sabrina Carpenter and Charli xcx. LISA won the first award for best pop. Later
Madonna opens starry 2026 MTV VMAs, LISA wins first award: What to know about the show
Madonna opened the starry 2026 MTV Video Music Awards. She was joined by her recent collaborators Sabrina Carpenter and Charli xcx. LISA won the first award for best pop. Later
Olivia Rodrigo, Charlie Puth, Sombr, Raye and Katseye set for 2026 iHeartRadio Jingle Ball tour
iHeartRadio is loading its 2026 holiday tour with some starry acts, including Olivia Rodrigo, Charlie Puth and the Jonas Brothers.
Olivia Rodrigo, Charlie Puth, Sombr, Raye and Katseye set for 2026 iHeartRadio Jingle Ball tour
iHeartRadio is loading its 2026 holiday tour with some starry acts, including Olivia Rodrigo, Charlie Puth and the Jonas Brothers | WBBM Newsradio 780 AM & 105.9 FM
Olivia Rodrigo, Charlie Puth, Sombr, Raye and Katseye set for 2026 iHeartRadio Jingle Ball tour
iHeartRadio is loading its 2026 holiday tour with some starry acts, including Olivia Rodrigo, Charlie Puth and the Jonas Brothers | WBEN
Star coaches make their bows as Nations League returns
The 2026/27 Nations League kicks off on Thursday but all eyes will be on the touchlines as a starry cast of new coaches, including Zinedine Zidane and Jurgen Klopp, prepare to make their debuts in international football.Other arrivals for this opening round of Nations League matches include Jorge Jesus, who will make his Portugal debut when the competition's reigning champions welcome Wales on Thursday.
Inside Lucas Museum's starry opening party with Oprah, Mark Hamill
The Lucas Museum's opening-night party was packed with as many high-wattage celebrities as your typical Academy Awards bash.
NASA’s Webb Reveals Dynamic Panorama of Star Formation
This starry view of the nearby star-forming region IC 348 is one of the largest images released to date from NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope. Using Webb,
Ralph Lauren delivers modern take on romance with sensual silhouettes
Ralph Lauren's New York Fashion Week show featured a starry guestlist with actors from Meghann Fahy, Cynthia Erivo, Viola Davis and Elizabeth Debicki in attendance. The designer's Spring 2027 show
Mercury Isn’t What Scientists Thought: New Study Reveals a Surprisingly Different Surface
From tiny glass beads and a map of the Moon to Mercury, a new study uses an indirect method to determine the silicon dioxide content of Mercury’s surface. Mercury’s surface appears to contain substantially less silicon dioxide than researchers previously estimated. A new analysis puts the compound at about 37 percent by mass, up to
Lion Nebula Roars to Life With NASA’s Webb
Observing across the starry “plains” of space, NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope has taken new images of NGC 2392, nicknamed the Lion Nebula. NASA’s Hubble
Thornton leads starry 2026 class entering San Jose Sports Hall of Fame
A league MVP, a national champion, a four-time Olympic medalist and a leader of the Bay Area’s two major rivals will be inducted into the San Jose Sports Hall of Fame in November.
Hades, King Herod and the Politics of Theater. A Starry August. Stageworthy News of the Week.
The producers of “Hadestown” on Broadway rescinded the casting of Geno Segers as Hades, after OnStageBlog reposted Segers’ (now deleted) videos on social media that belittled transgender people. Th…
Mamie Van Doren recalls the drunk MGM megastar who interrupted her romantic first date with big band icon Vic Damone
The last of the blonde bombshells wrote in her new memoir that the “gods of Hollywood were smiling down on me” the night of the starry affair.
Party action game Hatsune Miku Starry Party announced for Switch 2, PC
Good Smile Company has announced party action game Hatsune Miku Starry Party. It will launch for Switch 2 and PC via Steam in 2027 with English, Japanese, Traditional Chinese, and Simplified Chines…
Athlete of the Year finalist: Penn Manor standout provided the power for Comets in 3 sports
Anneli Starry didn’t know what she had in Joelle Kroesen. The Penn Manor girls lacrosse coach labeled the then-freshman as a swing — an athlete who is rostered on two
Ansel Elgort, Halle Bailey, Ludacris and Alan Ritchson Among Voice Cast for Animated Movie ‘Groove Tails’ (EXCLUSIVE)
“Groove Tails,” the upcoming animated feature from “Twilight” producers Imprint Entertainment and “The Lego Ninjago Movie” writer/director Bob Logan, has attracted a starry voice cast. Leading the ens...
NASA’s Planet-Hunting TESS Reveals Dazzling Night Sky
NASA’s TESS has released its most complete view of the starry sky to date
'Euphoria,' returning for a third season, launched a generation of new stars
“Euphoria” returns Sunday with its starry cast for a third season on HBO Max | Talk 1370
'Euphoria,' returning for a third season, launched a generation of new stars
“Euphoria” returns Sunday with its starry cast for a third season on HBO Max | KNSS Radio
Ruben Östlund's 'Entertainment System Is Down' Won't Be At Cannes 2026
Kirsten Dunst, Daniel Brühl, and Keanu Reeves are among the starry cast but the movie won't be ready for Cannes, we hear from sources.
Michael Pollan explains why AI will never replicate human consciousness
Michael Pollan tells Scientific American why the science of consciousness may ultimately be too subject to our own conscious minds to crack
'The Masked Singer' season 14 kicks off with a baseball legend unmasked in twisty double elimination
'The Masked Singer' season 14 got off to a massive start, with a whopping 10 starry performances, a baseball legend being revealed in a shocking double elimination.
Feuding physicists and the bitter battle over the swirls in ‘The Starry Night’
A team of scientists sparked a heated debate over whether Vincent van Gogh's The Starry Night depicts turbulence, a complex physical phenomenon.
Jake Paul Takes Delivery of a Wild, One-Off Widebody Ferrari Purosangue With a Starry Headliner
Before American influencer-turned-boxer Jake Paul stepped into the ring with British heavyweight Anthony Joshua on Friday, he took delivery of a new Ferrari Purosangue. Dubai-based outfit Venuum customized the SUV, and it is arguably one of the flashiest Purosangue builds ...
Faith-based entertainment sees a revival in Hollywood. Defining what it is can be a challenge
LOS ANGELES — At the movies this fall, Josh O’Connor plays a hot priest with a complicated past, Keanu Reeves is an angel who lost his wings, and Elizabeth Olsen has a romantic dilemma in the afterlife. Hollywood, it seems, has found God. But it’s not just starry big-budget Netflix