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The Deals: Influence Media Invests in MENA-Focused Catalog Buyer; Live Nation Makes Moves in Prague
Also: Singapore live entertainment company Triangle Group raises $15 million, Ticketmaster acquires a Uruguayan ticketing platform and more.
Why tickets for sports events are left out of DC bill combating price gouging
Buying tickets on resale marketplaces, such as Ticketmaster or StubHub, should be cheaper for shows in the D.C. in the near future.
Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) And The Valuation Debate Around Its Global Expansion Story
Event backdrop and what is worrying investors Live Nation Entertainment (LYV), owner of Ticketmaster and the EDC music festival, is under scrutiny as slower sales growth, rising capital intensity and pressure on operating margins raise fresh questions about the stock’s risk and reward tradeoff. See our latest analysis for Live Nation Entertainment. Live Nation Entertainment’s share price has climbed over the past year, with a year to date share price return of 21.97% and a 1 year total...
The States Try to Topple WarnerMount…Thus Begins the Local Antitrust Era
(Welcome to the “Most Important Story of the Week”, my bi-weekly strategy column analyzing the most important (but often not buzziest) news story of the last two weeks. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. Please subscribe.) Well, it looks like it’s time for another strategy column. Can I finally avoid writing about M&A? No, it seems I cannot. Admittedly, I’m a week early with this column, since I usually put it out every other week. But this news couldn’t wait. This will make three “Most Important Stories” in a row with a merger or acquisition as its centerpiece. First, Roku-Fox (an acquisition), then Comcast-NBCUniversal (a divestment!), and now the State AGs and the WGA’s lawsuits against Paramount’s pursuit of Warner Bros. Discovery (antitrust). M&A is usually the “most important” topic any given week, simply because a giant company merging or breaking up (or preventing those outcomes) can have the biggest impact on the streaming board. If you think about these companies as players in a game, changing the number of players is one of the biggest changes you can make. I shouldn’t really complain, either, since this lawsuit is very good news for customers and suppliers (econ speak for talent, workers and indie studios in Hollywood). So let me answer some questions about this potential trial, along with (shudder) making some heavily caveated predictions. I’ll also look at whether Hollywood must consolidate, whether or not the states can win, trouble at X-Box, Netflix’s YouTube binge, and more. Plus, I have five images that visualize this merger and the harm, including three brand new data looks you’ve never seen before. Subscribe Most Important Story of the Week - Can The States and the WGA Stop Hollywood’s Consolidation (Crisis)? If every other newsletter and news outlet is writing about the same story, I try to avoid writing about it as well, but I can’t ignore a story this consequential. The story of the last year was the fate of Warner Bros. Discovery, and this development potentially extends that saga into 2027. As I tried to figure out my angle, I realized, like my last column, I’m again faced with a series of questions. These questions, though, are much more forward-looking. Will the states win? Will the WGA win? If so, what happens to Warner Bros. Discovery? Either way, will this chill the market for future mergers? So you know what that means: predictions. About the future, no less, the hardest thing to predict.1 Just remember: nothing here comes with a guarantee. And the more confident someone is in their predictions, the less you should trust them. This situation is incredibly fluid, nuanced, uncertain and tenuous. So let’s try to explain what may happen. Question: Why File this Lawsuit? I’ll admit, a few months back, I was fairly pessimistic about the fate of this lawsuit. Rumors had started bubbling up that the state Attorneys General (in particular California) wanted to settle with either some minor divestments (usually CNN) or behavioral remedies. And that tracked for me: the states usually settle lawsuits, like the recent John Deere right-to-repair suit. Yet, they plan to fight this. (As they did the LiveNation-Ticketmaster monopolization trial and the Nexstar-Tegna merger.) Honestly, that also makes a ton of sense. Frankly, this move is just good politics for these State AGs. Most are still running for higher and higher office in blue states—some folks have emphasized that only Democratic AGs joined this suit, but given the Ellison/Trump ties, and fears of retribution, that tracks—and a high profile case like this will help them move up the electoral ladder, especially since Paramount and its leadership (the Ellisons, father and heir) have sided with the other side of the political aisle. That makes them unsympathetic to Democratic voters and Hollywood workers in particular. Why did this lawsuit happen? In addition to the very real concerns about industry consolidation, this is why. That said, I don’t think we would have seen this lawsuit for Netflix and Warner Bros., simply because they’re more sympathetic and aligned with Democrats. But those consolidation concerns are real. The “town”—meaning Hollywood and such—really is seeing the damage of mergers on this industry. That’s why the WGA also filed its own lawsuit in defense of workers as well. (Wildcard: What about Europe? Will they try to stop the deal, too? There have been some rumors out of the UK they may try to fight the deal, and UK enforcers just stopped a Getty Images-Shutterstock tie up, so there is precedence. This argument could go either way, though. On one hand, the EU doesn’t need to step in, cause they states are handling it. On the other hand, this could make the EU’s case easier. Just imagine if both sides coordinated. I’ll simply say, “We’ll see!”) Question: Will The State AGs or the WGA Win? Can the state AGs play David to Paramount-Skydance’s Goliath here? That’s really the whole thing, isn’t it? If you know this result, you could make a lot of money. When things are uncertain, it’s tempting to shrug and say, “Eh” meaning it’s a 50/50 proposition. I wouldn’t, though. When in doubt, you should expect that the merging parties succeed. AT&T did successfully buy Warner Bros., after all, and Disney bought Fox without any challenges. Many judges are extremely sympathetic to mergers, and I’d bet the state AGs get a judge who will allow the merger. (Even Obama-appointed judges often allow mergers.) As I understand it, we’ll see two main attacks. First, theatrical films. The AGs are arguing that, when it comes to share of box office and the number of both “wide releases” and blockbuster (or “tentpole”) films, the merging parties will have over 27% market share. Now, the Supreme Court once ruled from on high that any merger that exceeds 30% is presumptively illegal, but that’s guidance, not an ironclad bar. Still, the states will have to argue that this is close to having too much power, and with that power, this will likely further worsen the theater/studio splits in particular. Indeed, as Matthew Stoller pointed out, “just five studios are responsible for 95% of all blockbusters; if this merger goes through, then Paramount and Disney will control 60% of that.” So yes, movie studios will be very concentrated after this merger. Want me to visualize some of that? Well, here’s the share of films that grossed over $200 million at the domestic box office since 2022. (Note: this isn’t all films released in over 3,000 screens, but it is a good look at market power.) First, here are the 43 films by studio: Notice all the blue (Disney), orange (Universal), and purple (Warner Bros)? Yeah, those studios are powerful, and this combines Paramount with one of them. Here’s the look by studio and share of the films that grossed over $200 million: Now, if you look at that and also think, “Huh, should we break up Disney?” I’m with you. I’ve seen some folks poo-poo this idea that this is a real category, but it is! For an upcoming article, I’ve been pulling data on the share of top 100 films at the box office as a share of total box office, and it’s massive. Here’s the chart: (This analysis looks at The-Number’s top 100 films and total domestic box office each year.) To be clear, tentpoles make up 80.7% of the box office each year, so I do think it’s a genuine market. (To be clear, films grossing over $50 million make up 80% of the domestic box office, and films grossing over $100 million make up 64.1%.) I mean, the top 100 films at the box office make up 95% of each year’s grosses. Worse, the combined studios will likely cut output to flex that market power. Everyone can just look at what happened to Disney and Fox to see the precedent. (With fewer films, the remaining theaters have to give more for those few films that remain.) Here’s an image I’ve used a lot, the share of wide-release films from Disney and Fox over time: The AGs will also argue that this consolidation will also impact the cable industry. In this case, the consolidation is actually worse, but that environment is…complicated. Paramount will argue that the cable industry is shrinking. That said, predictions that cable will “go to zero” also don’t look very well supported by the data, as the declines are shrinking, meaning “cable” or “vMVPDs” will likely stabilize at some point. Can the state Attorneys General win on those two main arguments? I honestly don’t know. Again, I’d bet no, since history in general supports that, but it depends on the judge/jury and how they interpret the arguments. Notably, Paramount won’t face accusations about monopoly power in other areas, like streaming, news, sports rights, or vertical integration. I tend to disagree with leaving out sports rights, but I also see the appeal for a simpler case. The states also aren’t really pushing novel theories about labor harm either, which should help. (By the way, Sean McNulty at The Ankler wrote a great run through of potential options, and Capitol Forum also wrote a great paper on theatrical consolidation. Both these pieces predated the lawsuit. Matthew Stoller is also out with his analysis of the pros and cons of the case too.) In some ways, the WGA’s case is even stronger. Quoting Sean McNulty’s summary: “The WGA is citing WARNAMOUNT as crossing a 30% market share in multiple sectors, a number that the Supreme Court has precedent for deeming “presumptively anticompetitive” in a market. According to the WGA numbers, WARNAMOUNT would have represented: - 35% of film writing jobs between 2021 and 2024 - 36% of TV writing projects between 2022 and 2025 - 38% of overall deals between 2021 and 2024” Notably, antitrust enforcers did win recently in the Penguin-Simon & Schuster merger by focusing on labor impact, so don’t count this thinking out. (Wildcard: Will the states try to get a jury trial? Most likely no, they’ll let a judge handle it. If I’m them, though, I’d try to put this in front of a jury. Juries tend to understand monopoly power in a more realistic way than judges faced with legions of economists.) Question: What if They Win? What if They Lose?
Sports wagering revenue nears $300M since 2024 launch
With a third consecutive month of $11.5 million or more, North Carolina moved within $826,700 of $300 million in proceeds from legal sports wagering in May, two years after launch.
Got a ticketmaster lawsuit email? Class action suit includes those who bought tickets since 2010
If you bought concert tickets since 2010, you could be owed money from a growing Ticketmaster lawsuit. Here’s how to check and apply.
Is Q1 2026 Legal Accrual-Driven Loss Altering The Investment Case For Live Nation (LYV)?
In the first quarter of 2026, Live Nation Entertainment reported sales of US$3,793.03 million, but a net loss of US$389.1 million as a US$450 million legal accrual tied to investigations and litigation pushed the company into an operating loss. At the same time, the long-running Popp v. Live Nation and Ticketmaster nationwide class action over allegedly supracompetitive ticketing fees advanced, while management emphasized double-digit adjusted operating income growth expectations and record...
Did DOJ Settlement and Strong Ticket Demand Just Shift Live Nation Entertainment's (LYV) Investment Narrative?
Live Nation Entertainment recently outlined continued strong global concert demand, pricing power and a favorable Department of Justice settlement that avoided a Ticketmaster divestiture, while also confirming past management presentations at MoffettNathanson and J.P. Morgan investor conferences, both of which were webcast to investors. These developments, alongside Vanguard holding over 12.04 million shares and modest insider selling, spotlight how regulatory outcomes and investor...
Should Monopoly Verdict and Breakup Risk Require Action From Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) Investors?
In recent days, a jury found that Live Nation Entertainment and its Ticketmaster unit illegally monopolized concert ticketing, opening the door for more than 30 US states to seek remedies that could include curbing the company’s power or even forcing a breakup. This verdict introduces significant legal uncertainty around Live Nation’s vertically integrated concerts and ticketing model, potentially reshaping how major live events are promoted, ticketed, and operated across the...
Jury: Live Nation, Vegas’ top entertainment company, is a monopoly
Live Nation and its ticketing partner Ticketmaster are running an illegal monopoly, a jury in New York has ruled.
Live Nation, Ticketmaster are a live entertainment monopoly, jury decides
A judge will now decide whether Ticketmaster and Live Nation will be split up.
Live Nation says ‘game is not over’ after jury finds company liable for ticketing monopoly
A federal jury in New York found Live Nation and Ticketmaster liable for monopolistic practices, in what attorneys general called a landmark victory.
Jury finds that Ticketmaster and Live Nation had an anticompetitive monopoly
The civil case accused Live Nation of using its reach to smother competition — by blocking venues from using multiple ticket sellers, for example
Jury finds Live Nation, Ticketmaster operated monopoly over concert venues
A jury has found that concert giant Live Nation and its Ticketmaster subsidiary had a harmful monopoly over big concert venues.
Live Nation found liable liable in antitrust trial
The Justice Department and 39 states sued Live Nation to split the entertainment giant from Ticketmaster, calling it an illegal monopoly.
Jury starts deliberating states’ claim that Live Nation has a monopoly on concerts and ticketing
States argue Live Nation and Ticketmaster are driving up prices to see live music.
Jury starts deliberating states' claim that Live Nation has a monopoly on concerts and ticketing
Jury deliberations have begun in a civil case pitting 34 states against the concert giant Live Nation Entertainment. The states argue that the company and its ticketing arm, Ticketmaster, are...
Live Nation antitrust trial nears end as lawyer for 34 states labels the concerts giant a monopolist
A lawyer for states suing Live Nation Entertainment has tried to convince a jury during an antitrust trial's closing arguments that the company and its ticketing arm, Ticketmaster, are monopolizing...
Justice Department, Live Nation reach settlement over illegal monopoly case
Live Nation is the parent company of Ticketmaster
Justice Department and Live Nation reach settlement over illegal monopoly case
Justice Department attorneys say they've reached a settlement in its antitrust lawsuit against Ticketmaster and its parent company, California-based Live Nation Entertainment, but a trial may continue with states leading
Live Nation settles antitrust lawsuit with Justice Department
Live Nation and Ticketmaster has reached a settlement with federal authorities over its practices that accused the ticket giant for monopolizing the live events music industry, according to a source familiar with the matter. The industry came under intense scrutiny in 2022 after glitches at Ticketmaster blocked millions from purchasing tickets for Taylor Swift’s tour.
What Live Nation Entertainment (LYV)'s Antitrust Trial Over Ticketmaster Dominance Means For Shareholders
The U.S. Department of Justice and 30 states have taken Live Nation Entertainment and Ticketmaster to a jury trial in New York, alleging that they abused their dominance in live music ticketing, promotions, and venue contracts to harm fans, artists, and competitors. Because the case raises the possibility of forced divestiture of Ticketmaster or sweeping changes to venue contracts, it poses material uncertainty for Live Nation’s business model and future industry structure. We’ll now examine...
Ticketmaster 'retaliation' cost Brooklyn arena Billie Eilish, ex-exec said
John Abbamondi, former CEO of the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, said his venue paid dearly for dropping Ticketmaster for SeatGeek.
Live Nation's antitrust trial kicks off with star-studded witness list
The Live Nation-Ticketmaster antitrust trial starts Monday. See the biggest names on the witness list — and what they could say.
As a club promoter, he partied with Snoop Dogg. After taking on Ticketmaster, he sells cable door to door
Club promoter Tommy Dorfman lost everything after clashing with an entertainment giant. Fourteen years later, he's still waiting for his day in court.
Ohio State Fair announces 3 more concerts
The Ohio State Fair organizers said tickets will go on sale on Jan. 23 at 10 a.m. for all of the concerts through Ticketmaster.
What Live Nation Entertainment (LYV)'s Earnings Beat but Revenue Miss Means For Shareholders
In the past few days, Live Nation Entertainment reported quarterly results that exceeded analysts’ adjusted operating income estimates but fell short on revenue and event volume expectations, prompting a mixed reaction from the market. At the same time, analysts remained divided, with some reaffirming positive views based on continued demand for live events while others downgraded the stock amid ongoing concerns about the Ticketmaster business. We’ll now look at how this adjusted operating...