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Moana, The Invite and “What Customers Want”
(Welcome to my weekly streaming ratings report, the single best guide to what’s popular in streaming TV and what isn’t. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. If you were forwarded this email, please subscribe to get these insights each week.) Before we get going, I wanted to acknowledge that two of the most important figures in sports media (at least to me and my team) are stepping back from two of the best sports shows of all time. First off, Ernie Johnson will no longer host possibly the greatest studio show in the history of all sports, Inside the NBA. (Charles Barkley has said in the past that he’s retiring when Ernie does, which would be even worse!) EJ is one of the greatest to ever do it, and the NBA won’t be the same without him. Next, Michael Wilbon is taking a leave of absence from PTI, my favorite sports news show. I’ve been listening to the podcast for this show since the 2010s, if not earlier, treating it as my daily sports page. Wilbon, along with his co-host Tony Kornheiser, is also one of the greatest to ever do it. The sports media landscape will be worse without these two in it! Wishing all the best to Wilbon and EJ. Okay, on to this week’s issue. We’ve got two big shows—the second season of Prime Video’s The Terminal List and the third season of Netflix’s _Nobody Wants This—_but both were bested by an acquired title landing on Netflix. All that, plus an Original film from Mexico makes the charts but a formerly huge foreign TV show does not, a notable creator’s latest standup special flops, Ted Lasso finishes as a top season four series of all time, big numbers for the NBA’s new season (finally), the top animated shows on linear and streaming, movie budgets, and all the flops, bombs and misses, and a whole lot more. But first, on the film side, I’m taking a look at Moana and A24’s buzzy film from last summer. Let’s dive right in! (Reminder: The streaming ratings report focuses on the U.S. market and compiles data from Nielsen’s weekly top ten viewership ranks, Luminate’s Top Ten Data, JustWatch and Reelgood interest data, Samba TV household viewership, company datecdotes, Netflix hours viewed data, Google Trends, and IMDb to determine the most popular content. While most data points are current, Nielsen’s data covers the weeks of October 19th to October 25th, 2026. You can find a link to my terminology here.) Subscribe Film - What Do Customers Want? If I could remove one phrase from entertainment journalism, it would be “what customers want”. It’s not that it’s not wrong per se, but I read a lot of articles that use that phrase, but then don’t provide evidence of what customers actually want.1 For example, look at the bar chart below. It shows customer interest as measured by how much customers actually spent at the American box office, comparing four films to four others. Which films would you say represent “interest” the most? The one on the left certainly seems bigger, right? So it seems like “customers” wanted to see those films more. So here’s that chart with names attached: That’s right, four very buzzy films—The Invite, You Can See Everything, Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma and Primetime—went up against four notable “flops” or underperformers—Moana, Disclosure Day, Minions and Monsters, and Supergirl—and the latter clearly had more interest. That doesn’t mean they’re more profitable2 or well-liked by critics, but if you’re asking what customers want to spend their money on, it’s those movies. I’d especially argue that You Can See Everything had about as much media coverage as a film can get—I saw/read about it constantly; whenever random NBA podcasts are talking about it, you know it’s everywhere—and yet Moana will likely best it. I bring this up, because this week features a showdown between a notable box office flop, Moana on Disney+, and a buzzy dramedy, The Invite on HBO Max. Moana was widely considered to be a flop, and it was a disappointment at the box office, only earning $126 million domestically (and $323 million globally). For the budget, that’s a big miss, down from Moana 2’s heights of $1 billion globally. But as I’ve written a few times this summer, we often confuse “this film is profitable” with “more customers want to watch this film”, which is not the same thing. But that’s the box office. Let’s look at the streaming numbers, starting with the Moana live-action reboot. Where, yes, Moana (2026) also disappointed. It made Nielsen, but under 10 million hours, which is low for kid-skewing Disney+ films: It did make Samba TV, but at tenth place for only one week: Those numbers stand in stark contrast to some of Moana’s previous superlatives on streaming. Moana (the original animated film) has made the Nielsen charts 130 times since 2021. Moana 2 opened to 33.3 million hours on Nielsen. Moana was the biggest film on streaming in 2023 and 2024, second in 2020 and 2021, and top six in 2022 and 2025. Moana 2 was second overall in 2025. To be clear, the Moana live-action reboot didn’t work, given how much it cost to make. It’s absolutely a disappointment. But more families paid to see it than people paid to see most of A24’s buzzy films this year, with one notable (horror film) exception. Okay, on to The Invite, A24’s buzzy summer release, which just came to HBO Max. Mainly, I’m curious: Who made money from this film? Or who lost money: the stars of The Invite or A24? No, seriously, read this Deadline article for the details. The Invite’s budget was allegedly “under $15 million” (so...$14 million?) then A24 bought it for “a sum north of $10 million”, which I saw elsewhere as over $12 million (so...$13 million?), but then it just made $26 million in the US. So basically, The Invite’s investors only made money after they sold foreign territories—it made $33 million overseas—but A24 might just make its money back in the US in the theatrical window, assuming it had $0 in marketing. I read one article analyzing this film’s marketing campaign which assumed no marketing spend, even though that article went on to detail how much marketing and PR and ads this film had. For what it’s worth, I saw a lot of marketing for it. A24 will likely just break even after factoring in other windows, but no matter what, this isn’t a hugely profitable juggernaut from Hollywood’s most-heralded film studio. (And, I’d note, most coverage of IP or superhero failures doesn’t account for profitability in future windows.) Really, I’m guessing that the stars—Olivia Wilde, Seth Rogen, Ed Norton and Penelope Cruz—had or kept their backend, hence why they did so much press for this film, which brings me to my actual takeaway, which I just mentioned two weeks ago about Backrooms: I don’t trust A24’s reported film budgets anymore. Either A24 is strategically releasing low numbers to get good press or they’ve really cracked the code on how to make movies at prices no one else can approach. But I’m skeptical about that last point. You don’t keep elite talent happy by keeping budgets in check—see: Dan Lin getting fired—and by all accounts, A24 keeps talent very happy. There’s another option: not paying big name actors their actual quotes upfront by giving away back end/profit participation. Offering backend is one great way to keep the reported budget lower than it actually is, but it makes the film less profitable for A24. (By the way, I’m still running down the numbers on Backrooms’ budget. If you know its actual budget—not the reported $10 million number—reach out to me on my contact page. I’ve heard rumblings I’m on to something, but would love something more concrete.) Okay, enough asking questions about A24’s business model. To the streaming ratings! The Invite came to HBO Max on 23-Oct, so we could look at the streaming numbers now… …and I don’t have any for you since it didn’t make any of the charts I track. And that’s pretty much the moral of the streaming story. Even though it disappointed on streaming, Moana wins this round, too. Quick Notes on Film The only other notable new straight-to-streaming film was S_urviving Hurricane Otis_, a Mexican Original on Netflix. It made Nielsen with 3.4 million hours and Luminate with 4.8 million hours. Overall, I’d call that very solid for a foreign-language title, but still far from a hit. Overall, the Luminate and Nielsen charts felt very light this week. Gladiator II also came to Netflix non-exclusively (it’s still streaming on Paramount+) and had 5.0 million hours according to Nielsen. That’s up from the 3.7 million hours it had when it premiered on Paramount+ a year and a half ago. Netflix’s Animals fell to 4.9 million hours according to Nielsen and fell off the Samba TV charts. Peacock/Universal’s Disclosure Day actually made it for a third week, but only at 2.8 million hours. Apple TV’s Sacrifice was down to 2.7 million from 3.2 million. Still, for an Apple TV film to make two weeks is solid (for them). Toy Story 5 made a fifth week on the charts. We’re just getting started with this issue, but the rest is for paid subscribers of the Entertainment Strategy Guy, so if you’d like to find out… ...how The Terminal List did after a four-year break... ...what acquired surprising title topped the charts… …where Ted Lasso finished in the all-time charts… ...big NBA opening week ratings... …a controversial new reality show that missed the charts... ...what very notable foreign TV show flopped... ...all the flops, bombs and misses... ...and a whole lot more... ...please subscribe! We can only keep doing this great work with your support. If you want an idea of just how much content you’d get in a full issue, check out this older issue.
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Summary: Democratic state and federal wins in the midterm elections could lead to Medicaid expansion in some states, and focuses attention on the House Democrats’ memo on health care priorities in the new Congress. Few of these proposals are likely to become law before 2029, but they could form the foundation for Democratic health care reform efforts after the 2028 Presidential election. Portion of total newly eligible for Medicaid if non-expansion states expanded Source: Cervantes, S et al How Many Uninsured Are in the Coverage Gap and How Many Could be Eligible if All States Adopted the Medicaid Expansion? KFF, July 27, 2026 It’s been almost a week since the midterm elections, and the Democrats will have large majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, although not large enough to overcome Senate filibusters or Presidential vetoes. I reviewed some of what I thought these midterm results could mean in a post last week. In retrospect, I might have understated the elections’ impact on health care due to changes in governorship and majorities in many state legislatures. A Democratic trifecta (governorship and both houses) could mean expansion of Medicaid in Wisconsin, and a Democratic governor and House in Texas and Georgia could increase pressure in both states to expand Medicaid. That’s especially important, because Texas currently represents almost half of those who would be newly eligible for insurance from Medicaid expansions. Medicaid expansions matter to employers because they have been shown to decrease the risk of closure of rural hospitals and support workers’ ability to stay employed and productive. The House Democrats’ Cost of Living Healthcare Working Group published an 84-page memo in September with recommendations for the first hundred hours, the first hundred days, and the first year. The midterm results make this document more important. Here’s a review of what some of these recommendations could mean for employer-sponsored health insurance. Elements that could lower employer health care spending Restore the expanded advance premium tax credit for ACA plans. This could bring healthier enrollees back to the marketplace plans, which would improve the risk status of these plans and decrease the rate of uninsurance. Fewer people with insurance puts higher pressures on provider rates of employer plans. More stable ACA plans could encourage employers to consider transitioning from employer-sponsored plans to ICHRA/Choice, providing a fund for employers to purchase their own insurance on an exchange. Repeal Medicaid work requirements and other administrative rules of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act which as written will lead to a large increase in the uninsured rate. Fewer people with insurance leads to more pressures from hospitals for commercial rate increases. Extend Inflation Reduction Act negotiated drug prices to commercial health plans. These are now only applicable to Medicare Parts D (outpatient drugs) and B (drugs administered by providers. The Medicare negotiated prices are lower than net prices negotiated by PBMs. Hospital price limits. Some of the Democratic House proposals would institute site neutral payment and limit outlier hospital prices to 200% of Medicare. The average commercial health plan pays about 247% Medicare rates for inpatient hospital care, and many commercial health plans currently pay over 300% of Medicare for hospital services. PBM regulations. The proposals would mandate more transparency and prevent PBMs from paying subsidiaries more than market rates. Antitrust enforcement. The plan would break up vertically integrated health care monopolies which could lower prices through competition. Ban on non-compete contractual clauses could increase competition by increasing flexibility and supply of clinicians, although it could also increase physician leverage and lead to higher wages which could raise prices. Lower the Medicare eligibility age, which could take older, more expensive, workers off employer sponsored plans. Create a Medi-Kids plan to insure all children and potentially young adults up to age 26. These plan members have low non-preventive utilization and cost less per person than older plan members, but removing children from employer plans would decrease volatility because a few children have very high medical costs. Elements that could increase employer spending (in many instances for high value services) Mandate three primary care and three mental health visits without cost sharing Eliminate cost sharing for mental health care and substance use care during pregnancy and in the year after delivery Require coverage of infertility services Cap cost sharing for insulin, epipen and respiratory inhalers Count copay coupons and assistance toward member deductibles and cost sharing Cap total health care costs (premium and out-of-pocket costs) at 8% of household income Leave a comment Elements that could improve the market Increased price transparency Tightening enforcement of short-term plans, fixed indemnity plans, and cost-sharing ministries. These skimpy health plans skim off healthier people, leaving sicker people on marketplace exchanges and employer-sponsored health plans. Here’s a past post on the perils of cheap insurance. Most of these proposals are likely not to become law in the next two years, but could form the foundation of a Democratic proposal for health care reform in 2029 and beyond. The document does not provide cost estimates for these proposals. Share Thanks for reading! If you found this useful, please share, subscribe, like, and restack. You can find previous posts at this link. Views expressed in Employer Coverage are purely my own. Thanks for reading Employer Coverage ! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. Subscribe